2024/25 League One relegation odds: Predictions, and betting tips

League One feels different this season. The teams at the top are spending money. The teams at the bottom can’t. Levels of expectation have to be realistic. Perennial underdogs like Shrewsbury, Mansfield and Exeter can’t expect to compete with teams like Birmingham City who have an astronomical budget. Survival is simply the name of the game for many. Here we look at the teams likely to be involved in the relegation dogfight in more detail:

Shrewsbury (4/7)

Paul Hurst is back for his second stint as manager of the Shrews.

In his first spell Hurst took the club to the brink of the Championship, only missing out on the second tier of English football after a defeat to Rotherham in the 2018 playoff final.

Since then life has been a struggle for the Shrews.

Lower to mid table finishes have become the norm, with the club finishing just four points and two places above the drop zone last season.

Behind the scenes, Director of Football Mickey Moore seems to be the person pulling the strings.

Moore has been busy in the summer bringing in a dozen players. All on free transfers or loan deals.

But the reinforcements were much needed as 19 players headed out the exit door.

That’s a serious overhaul of the playing staff. And the way the business has been conducted confirms the club hasn’t got the funds to compete.

Shrewsbury is one of teams likely to struggle in the current climate where teams are investing heavily. Keeping them in the division will be a hell of a task for Warne this season.

Shrewsbury are odds-on for the drop. And it’s hard to argue with that as this season has relegation written all over it.

Bet on Shrewsbury town to get relegated at 4/7 with Sky Bet

Crawley Town (21/20)

Crawley Town were one of the four teams promoted to League One last season.

Scott Lindsey is doing wonders with the team. He led them to 7th place in League Two, and then won the playoffs to grab the final promotion spot, beating Crewe 2-0 in the Wembley final.

Lindsay took the Red Devils up playing an attractive style of football. But the reality is he will have to start all over again after the departures of Corey Addai, Liam Kelly, Klaidi Lolos and Danilo Orsi.

In total, eight of the 11 who started the playoff final have departed the club. They’ve been replaced by 13 incoming players.

There is also plenty of uncertainty off the pitch at the Broadfield Stadium.

At the end of May, co-owner Preston Johnson announced he was stepping down as chairman. Then at the start of July, it was announced Johnson was back, but will have greater responsibility as the chief executive officer (CEO) and head of football operations.

Despite the upheaval, the season got off to a good start for Crawley. They took six points from their opening two matches. Maintaining momentum will be key. As will having stability at boardroom level.

But, if things start to go wrong for the Red Devils, we suspect the wheels could come off in spectacular fashion.

Bet on Crawley Town to get relegated at 21/20 with BoyleSports

Cambridge (8/11)

After being sacked from Sheffield Wednesday back in November 2020, Gary Monk finally got back into football when he was appointed manager of Cambridge United in March of this year.

That’s a long time to be out of the game. And questions may be asked as to why no one took a punt on the former Swansea, Leeds, Middlesbrough, Birmingham City and Wednesday boss.

The recruitment of the experienced Gary Gardener from Birmingham City could prove to be an astute signing. Gardener arrives with over a dozen others, including former Crewe defender Connor O’Riordan, who United have signed on loan from his parent club Blackburn Rovers.

Like with Crawley and Shrewsbury, there has been a high turnover of players, 16 have left this summer. So Monk will need to be given time to mould his new team together.

And if United can get the Gary Monk who impressed so many in his first managerial spell at Swansea, they may well have pulled off a master stroke with his appointment.

Bet on Cambridge United to get relegated at 8/11 with Paddy Power

Northampton (6/4)

After gaining automatic promotion to League One in 2023, Northampton consolidated their position last season with an impressive 14th place finish.

Managed by Jon Brady, the Cobblers won an impressive 17 matches, finishing the season with 60 points (16 above the relegation zone).

The Australian has brought stability to Sixfields Stadium. He has been in charge of the first team since 2021. Brady first joined the club as the U16 coach in 2016, and has worked his way up through the ranks.

The loss of Marc Leonard to Birmingham City in the summer transfer window was a blow. Also leaving the club this summer were first team regulars Sam Sherring and Shaun McWilliams. But arriving at Sixfields are Samy Chouchane (on loan from Brighton), Luke Mbete (loan from Man City) and Liam McCarron (permanent transfer from Stoke City).

Businessman Nigel Le Quesne acquired a 25% holding in the club last April. If the team is in trouble, they may now also have some financial muscle to help them out in January.

A combination of some investment and the stability of the club should be enough to see the Cobblers beat the drop for a second successive season.

Bet on Northampton Town to get relegated at 6/4 with talkSPORT BET

Burton (11/10)

The 2024/25 season will be Burton Albion’s seventh successive in League One.

Mark Robinson is the new head coach. The former head of the Chelsea Development Squad took over from Martin Paterson in the summer.

Paterson departed the club after keeping the Brewers up on the final day of last season – despite losing 3-0 to the already relegated Fleetwood Town.

Robinson’s appointment is down to the Nordic Football Group, Burton’s new owners.

The promised investment was enough to prise him away from his role at Chelsea. And in the process, provide the new owners with a great coup.

It’s still early days with the new owners. But one thing that is clear is without the Nordic group, the Brewers would have been struggling at the bottom of the table again.

The club had changed manager four times in four years (not including two caretakers) since the departure of the long-serving Nigel Clough in 2020.

The constant chopping and changing gives the team no stability, and that in turn leads to instability on the pitch.

Adding further stability is the permanent signings of 17 players including Elliot Watt and Charlie Webster. The one loan signing is Dylan Williams. Yes, you’ve guessed it, he’s from Chelsea.

Mark Robinson is starting from scratch, and that won’t be easy. But with sound backing, the future looks bright at last for Burton Albion.

They look more than a safe bet to stay up again this season.

Bet on Burton Albion to get relegated at 11/10 with bet365

Exeter (3/1)

Exeter City are starting their third consecutive season in the third flight of English football.

The Grecians have recorded finishes of 14th (2022/23) and 13th (2023/24) since winning promotion from League Two in the 2021/22 season.

The club has been managed by former Scotland midfielder Gary Caldwell since his appointment in October 2022.

Caldwell was a replacement for Matt Taylor who decided to seek pastures new, just a couple of months into the season.

The transition from Taylor to Caldwell has been seamless, with the team having been stable if not spectacular in their two most recent seasons.

It’s hard to know what Exeter’s ambitions now are. They are a club who don’t spend much. And a club that relies on developing talent to sell on for their survival.

So far this summer six players have come in with 11 leaving.

Josh Magennis is arguably one of their highest profile signings. But the 34-year-old Northern Ireland international isn’t the most prolific in front of goal.

Magennis looks more of a signing to get them by. He certainly isn’t one for the future with any sell on value.

Joe Whitworth (Crystal Palace) and Tristan Crama (Brentford) have come in on loan. But both are very young, and it’s debatable how much impact they can have on the team.

Gary Caldwell looks like a steady hand. But we feel he will have his work cut out keeping Exeter away from the relegation zone this season.

Bet on Exter City to get relegated at 3/1 with Betfred

Leyton Orient (10/3)

Leyton Orient are another of those teams embarking on their second season in League One.

Current manager Richie Wellens took over at Orient in March 2022, and within just over a season led them from mid-table mediocrity to 2022/23 League Two champions.

During their first season back in League One, Wellens led the Os to an impressive 11th place finish. The 65-point haul saw Orient finish just 11 points off the playoffs, and a massive 21 clear of the relegation zone.

With a record like that, Orient have done well to hang onto the services of Wellens.

The Os secured Wellens on a three-year contract at the conclusion of last season. So at the very least, they should be due a nice pay day should a bigger club come calling for the services of the impressive attack minded coach.

Ahead of the 2024/25 season, more players have left the East London club than have arrived.

Regulars from last season like Sol Brynn, Shaq Forde and Idris El Mizouni have all returned to their parent clubs, one of the pitfalls of relying on loan signings.

Getting replacements into the club has proved difficult.

The Os could well be relying on Richie Wellens to recreate some of his magic if they are to stay out of the relegation dogfight this season.

Bet on Leyton Orient to get relegated at 10/3 with Paddy Power

Stevenage (3/1)

Stevenage enjoyed two successful years under the guidance of manager Steve Evans and his assistant Paul Raynor.

Unfortunately for Boro, Evans and Raynor left the club in April. The duo agreed to take over at Rotherham, after the Millers relegation from the Championship was confirmed.

Losing Evans is a huge blow. The well travelled Scot saved Stevenage from relegation from League Two in the 2021/22 season. He then guided the club to promotion in the 2022/23 season.

Throughout the majority of the 2023/24 season in League One, Evans kept the club in touch with the playoff zone.

Towards the end of the season, Boro fell away and ended up in a credible 9th place. Not bad for a first season in League One.

Into the hot seat at The Lamex Stadium comes Alex Revell. This will be Revell’s second stint as manager, having first managed the club from February 2020, until his sacking in November 2021.

Revell was back at the club in 2022, as part of Evans’ coaching staff. He was appointed manager on a permanent basis in the summer.

How the club fares under the leadership of Revell is the key to how they will get on. Revell knows the club inside out, and his appointment retains some continuity.

The loss of Terence Vancooten will be a blow. But Revell inherits a strong squad that can boast names like Jake Forster-Caskey, Jordan Roberts and Harvey White.

And one final thing to take into consideration is that the team had slightly lost its way under Evans towards the end of his tenure.

That’s not to say Evans wouldn’t have got things back on track. But a fresh approach could be just what this squad needs.

Despite the loss of Evans, we feel that Stevenage will be just fine.

Bet on Stevenage to get relegated at 3/1 with Sky Bet

Bristol Rovers (11/2)

Rovers are embarking on their third successive season in League One.

Matt Taylor took over at the club in December 2023, less than a month after he was shown the door by Rotherham due to the team’s poor form.

Under Taylor, Rovers managed a respectable 15th place finish with 57 points, 13 above the relegation zone.

So what about this season? Is it another season of consolidation, or are the club looking upwards?

Ahead of the summer transfer window closing, 18 players had left the club and 14 had arrived. So in effect, Matt Taylor is starting from scratch.

Behind the scenes the club has been working hard on transfer ins and outs.

They don’t want any repeats of last season’s final day transfer window chaos that saw Ryan Loft leave, a transfer for Jonson Clarke-Harris fall through, and the club having to take a last-minute punt on Chris Martin.

The punt turned out okay in the end. Martin scored 16 goals in 34 matches. The striker is now 35, and he hasn’t been prolific throughout his career. But if he can repeat last season’s goalscoring exploits, relegation shouldn’t be an issue.

Bet on Bristol Rovers to get relegated at 11/2 with bet365

Mansfield (8/1)

After a spell outside of the football league, Mansfield Town were promoted to League Two from the Conference in the season of 2012/13.

There they stayed until last season, when a third place finish finally saw them make it back to the English third tier for the first time in over 20 years.

The Stags are managed by the experienced Nigel Clough. The former Burton, Derby and Sheffield United manager has been in charge at Field Mill since 2020.

Clough will no doubt continue to rely on his core players. The likes of Jordan Bowery, Elliott Hewitt, Aaron Lewis and Lucas Akins. But will they be enough to keep the Stags in League One?

A big loss from last season will be Lewis Brunt. The on loan defender played a huge role in shoring up the Stags’ leaky back line. Brunt went back to his parent club Leicester in the summer and was subsequently transferred to Wrexham.

Replacing the likes of Brunt will be hard. Doing so will be key to Mansfield’s survival.

As too will be striker Davis Keillor-Dunn. He scored 22 times in 45 matches last season.

If Keillor-Dunn has gone and not been replaced by transfer deadline day, it promises to be a long season for the Stags.

Bet on Mansfield Town to get relegated at 8/1 with Sky Bet

My League One relegation betting tips

The League One season is a long one with all clubs playing 46 games. A lot can change across the duration of the campaign. Based on summer transfer window activity and early season form here is my League One relegation betting tips.

Shrewsbury to finish bottom (11/4)

Things didn’t look great for the Shrews before a ball was even kicked. The Shropshire club were in plenty of pundits’ four predictions to be relegated. But remarkably, things have gotten worse since it has started.

Paul Warne’s team lost their opening three fixtures, scoring just one goal in the process. Worse still, the Shrews are conceding at an alarming rate.

Shrewsbury always looked good for relegation. They are now starting to look like a good bet to finish rock bottom as well.

Bet on Shrewsbury to finish bottom at 11/4 with bet365

Mansfield Town to be relegated (8/1)

Mansfield Town look a great wager to be relegated. The Stags have done their transfer business early. But they seem vulnerable if a bigger club comes calling for one of their better players – whether in the summer or January transfer windows.

Nigel Clough is arguably their biggest asset. The experienced manager isn’t likely to jump ship. The question is whether the club will stick with him if things start to go wrong.

A relegation fight looks on the cards for Mansfield. And at their current odds to be relegated, they look one of the best bets of the early season.

Bet on Mansfield town to be relegated at 8/1 with Sky Bet

League One table

There is not just an intense promotion battle taking place in League One this season, there is also a major fight for survival at the bottom of the table. With four teams to go down to League Two, over half the table can get dragged into the battle to avoid the dreaded drop. Check out the latest League 1 table here.

History of League One relegation

Breaking the 50-point barrier has been enough to guarantee safety in League One across the past decade. But since the pandemic-shortened season of 2019/20, bettering 47 points has been enough.

Furthermore, in the three most recent seasons, the points threshold has gotten lower with a point a game enough to secure League One safety.

It’s easy to say breaking 50 points will be enough to guarantee safety in 2024/25. But it would be incredibly unfortunate to reach this amount and still not beat the drop.

Season21st place (pts)22nd place (pts)23rd place (pts)24th place (pts)2013/14Tranmere (47)Carlisle (45)Shrewsbury (42) Stevenage (42)2014/15Notts County (50)Crawley (50)Orient (49)Yeovil (40)2015/16Doncaster (46)Blackpool (46)Colchester (40)Crewe (34)2016/17Port Vale (49)Swindon (44)Coventry (39)Chesterfield (37)2017/18Oldham (50)Northampton (47)MK Dons (45)Bury (36)2018/19Plymouth (50)Walsall (47)Scunthorpe (46)Bradford (41)2019/20Wimbledon (35)Tranmere (32)Southend (19)Bolton (14)2020/21Rochdale (47)Northampton (45)Swindon (43)Bristol Rovers (38)2021/22Gillingham (40)Doncaster (38)Wimbledon (37)Crewe (29)2022/23MK Dons (45)Morecambe (44)Accrington (44)Forest Green (27)2023/24Cheltenham (44)Fleetwood (43)Port Vale (41)Carlisle (37)

Most relegated teams in League One

Sky Bet League One as we know it was founded in 2004.

From 2004 onwards, Swindon Town have the record for the most relegations to League Two.

The Robins have dropped out of the third tier of English football four times. The last of those occasions was in the 2020/21 season.

Swindon are still playing their football in League Two, so can’t add to their four League One relegations just yet.

Of the seven clubs with a history of three relegations from League One, only Northampton are in the division. There is a strong possibility they could draw level with Swindon this season.

4 Relegations – Swindon Town

3 Relegations – Bury, Chesterfield, Crewe, Gillingham, MK Dons, Northampton, Port Vale

2 Relegations – Bradford, Bristol Rovers, Carlisle, Cheltenham, Doncaster, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Rochdale, Scunthorpe, Southend, Tranmere, Walsall, Wycombe

FAQ about the 2024/25 League One season

League One promises to be as competitive as ever in the 2024/25 season. Birmingham City look to be the team to beat for the top spot. But at the bottom, any four from ten could take the dreaded plunge to League Two. Below we have a helpful FAQ section with more information about the current season:

1. Which region is most likely to have one of their League One teams relegated?

The extended Midlands region is most likely to have one of their League One teams relegated. Shrewsbury, Burton Albion and Northampton Town are all in with a chance of going down.

2. Who will be the League One top scorer for the 2024/25 season?

The favourite to be the League One top scorer for the 2024/25 season is Alfie May of Birmingham City. The former Charlton striker is 9/4 with the bookmakers to top the scoring charts this season.

3. Which team will finish at the top of 2024/25 League One?

Birmingham City look set to finish at the top of the League One table in 2024/25. The Midlands club are backed by Tom Wagner who has ambitions to take the team into the Premier League.

About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

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Latest League One relegation odds

Teams most likely to get relegated