The top two in the NFC South collide on Thursday night when the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off Week 5’s NFL action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The 3-1 Bucs are coming in hot after dazzling the Philadelphia Eagles 33-16 in the Florida sunshine last Sunday.

Tampa Bay remains ahead of the 2-2 Falcons, who beat the New Orleans Saints 26-24 in another divisional clash thanks to a late game-winning drive led by Kirk Cousins.

Both teams harbour hopes of a strong season and a potential deep run into the playoffs, which makes the outcome of this clash one of the toughest to call on the Week 5 schedule.

Baker Mayfield over 33.5 pass attempts @ 17/20

Tampa Bay 1st Quarter Money Line @ 20/21

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Mayfield may have time in the pocket 

Tampa Bay used the pass to set up the running game against the Eagles, leading to quarterback Baker Mayfield attempting a season-high 47 throws.

The former No.1 overall pick of the Cleveland Browns picked Philly’s defence apart with some big-time throws over the middle, while also delivering two precise touchdown passes to Mike Evans and Trey Palmer.

Mayfield, who also ran in a score himself on a read-option play to put the Bucs 21-0 up the second quarter, averaged just over 33 throws per game across a full season in 2023.

His average number of pass attempts is 32.25 four weeks into this season, which reveals consistency in the Bucs’ weekly game plans.

Mayfield excels on short and intermediate passes and this matchup could call for him to dink and dunk rather than air it out in the search for long-yardage gains.

The Falcons have given up only one pass play of 40 yards or more this season, but they have also generated a league-low four sacks so far.

That suggests Tampa’s QB may have time to go through his progressions and find an open receiver.

Opposing quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr attempted 39 and 36 passes respectively against the Falcons these past two weeks and it seems likely that Mayfield’s numbers will be of a similar order.

Take Tampa to make another fast start

Tampa have been making much better starts in games this year and that has enabled them to play with confidence and a little swagger when closing them out later on.

Last year they averaged just 2.9 first-quarter points per game, but that has shot up to 6.5 this season – the eight-best in the NFL.

After they scored on their first two possessions last week, it may be worthwhile backing the Bucs to be ahead after the 15-minute mark in Atlanta.

It was the third time that they had held the lead at the end of the first quarter and the Falcons have led only once at that point through the first four weeks.

Atlanta also look likely to be without one of their top defenders – linebacker Troy Andersen – through injury.

He recorded a career-high 16 tackles and a pick-six against the Saints before sustaining a knee injury and his presence will be missed if he cannot suit up on Thursday.

All odds correct at time of writing

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