It’s Arc weekend at Paris Longchamp with the feature race on Sunday, but there’s also a whole host of top group races to look into ahead of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The weekend sees as many as five group contests on Saturday and another six on the Sunday including the biggest race in France.
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Arc Weekend tips
Saturday
12.23: Illinois 1/3
1.33: Kyprios 1/3
4.00: Term Of Endearment 9/2
Sunday
12.55: Bedtime Story 7/2
4.05: Sparkling Plenty 6/1 Each-way
Illinois
Placed a neck second in his last two races behind stablemates who were either joint favourite or outright favourites.
That’s a great run of form in two top group meetings including a close enough second to Sosie at Longchamp who was for a time the big favourite for the Arc on Sunday.
He’s certainly suited to 1m7f as his neck second to Jan Brueghel last time out showed and win at Royal Ascot over 1m6f exemplified.
His staying power will be handy but will be even better suited if the ground isn’t heavy, which could be the case with dry weather forecast throughout from Thursday onwards.
Hence why he’s such a short price against these group rivals.
Kyprios
Another 1/3 odds-on shot for the Qatar Prix du Cadran on Saturday following Illinois.
Kyprios has gone unbeaten this season winning each of his last five contests, all quite convincingly too.
Beating Trawlerman at Royal Ascot over this distance of 2m4f in the Gold Cup was further proof of his superior stamina and it’s unlikely any horse can go close.
Kyprios certainly doesn’t mind softer conditions and won this by 20 lengths when 7/10 favourite in 2022, when going into the race off the back of five wins. Deja vu.
Term Of Endearment
Term Of Endearment is the favourite for this big field running in the Prix de Royallieu.
She’s won each of her last two races when upped to 1m6f for the first time and is clearly a tough mare to win both times ahead of Night Sparkle both times.
There are lots of reappearing rivals in this one but it’s hard to see them getting to the mare at the second or third time of asking.
Neither really had huge excuses and Term Of Endearment has looked to always have that bit more coming into the final furlong.
While it’s often tough to back a favourite sometimes in such a big field, 9/2 is still worth the value based on her still being unexposed at this distance and also shouldn’t mind the conditions.
Bedtime Story
7/2 currently is a great price on an Aidan O’Brien trained horse who prior to her latest race was 4/4 including the near ten length victory at Royal Ascot in the Chesham.
She went on to beat Exactly, twice when a staggering 1/16 favourite at Leopardstown and then also at the Curragh in Group 3 and Group 2 contests, respectively.
She was heading up the Group 1 Stud Stakes at the Curragh last month, albeit a bit keen early and with 1 furlong to go, dropped to last, but only by less than three lengths.
It was later revealed the filly was lame post race and would have been the main factor in her losing in such a manner.
Yet despite being left to drop off still was close up. The extra distance won’t be a bother for her and she should bounce back nicely as Aidan O’Brien’s horses so often do.
Sparkling Plenty
Ylang Ylang shaped as though the extra yardage will be a benefit. And for the 1m2f of the Prix de l’Opera Longines it could be an ideal trip for the three-year-old who’s yet to win this season.
She went fourth towards the finish of the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in Group 1 company and was just over a length off of Porta Fortuna in that contest.
She was the big favourite for the Oaks at Epsom in May but didn’t quite make the 1m4f trip and was subsequently dropped to 1m on each of her last two races.
Fallen Angel is probably the biggest contender against her though, having more consistent placings, only dropping out of the top two once and that was in the 1000 Guineas.
She was bought by Wathnan Racing in September and are looking for a quick return on investment with nearly £250k on offer to the winner here.
Both have gone well on soft ground before so that shouldn’t be a concern, it’s the distance that has the potential to catch them out.
But I’d prefer an each-way play on Sparkling Plenty who has Group 1 form in France and a close third at Goodwood in the Nassau.
She was sixth last time out but that was on her first try over 1m4f and clearly has a big chance on the step back to 1m2f.
She’s also won on heavy ground before which could be the key here for the P Cottier-trained horse with great form in France.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
August ’24: +34.88
From May ’24: +147.96pts
From July ’23: +360.52pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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