talkSPORT have you covered with free horse racing tips and free bets on Thursday’s fixtures at Ludlow and Carlisle.
Tom Lunn has gone through the cards, form, going and much more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.
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Thursday racing tips
LUDLOW
5.05: Inoui Machin 9/4 (1.5pts)
CARLISLE
1.48: Bugise Seagull 11/8 (2pts)
4.40: Got Your Back 5/1 Each-way (1.5pts)
Inoui Machin
Ballintubber Boy is just about the favourite for this at 2/1 at time of writing.
He’s won seven of his 16 hurdle contests since 2021 and has slowly but surely been rising in the weights.
However, a 5lb rise looks like it could well be enough for the seven-year-old.
Inoui Machin went from a mark of 113 to 121 last season winning twice and placing third or fourth in each of his races.
He doesn’t win by wide margins but has been impressive, with his form ahead of Menaggio last time out has worked out well, with that horse going on to win his chase debut on Monday, and was a 2pt winner for the tips too.
That speaks volumes for Inoui Machin, who could make a big impact over fences on debut in this discipline and season.
Jockey Dylan Johnston has won five times in just 14 rides and trainer Neil Mulholland has seven wins from 25 runners with a great strike-rate boosting this horse’s chances.
Bugise Seagull
Cherie D’Am was a decent second in a Grade 2 at Sandown in February before a respectable third in Grade 1 company at Aintree in April, behind Dancing City and The Jukebox Man.
The mare did beat Shanagh Bob in that race and that does boost her form slightly coming into this off a handy mark.
Bugise Seagull has similar form with a similar third in a Grade 1, behind Brighterdaysahead. The gelding also has a strong third behind Handstands at Huntingdon in February, albeit third of four.
He certainly outran his odds of 50/1 last time out in the Grade 1 when he carried top-weight.
That finish suggests he’s well-weighted too as well, placing ahead of 147 and 148-rated horses including the impressive Ile Atlantique.
Johnnywho has placed close up in two different graded meetings last season including a decent fourth of 21 behind Gwennie May Boy, over 3m and looks better suited back to 2m4f.
Cherie D’Am also steps back from 3m to 2m4f though she can certainly attempt further in lesser events and remains a danger going forward back over this distance.
It all comes down to who will be better over fences first time out though and that goes to Bugise Seagull under Sean Bowen.
Got Your Back
This horse returned from a wind op in May that seemed to do the trick as he placed a respectable third of nine when 8/1.
That was certainly a step in the right direction after a good couple of runs on his first two hurdle contests.
His debut was in fact behind Bugise Seagull, just 12 lengths behind and he confirmed his form when winning next time out by 11 lengths in maiden company.
That win saw him given a rating of 115 and given his last three runs, has dropped 5lb.
He’s surely very well-weighted returning for the first time this season and the Donald McCain and Brian Hughes combo should see yet another winner.
Wind ops often have a much better effect after their first run, so the horse can get used to their new breathing abilities and there’s a possibility he can be much better now.
One Eye On Vegas has some top form with placed efforts behind the likes of Santos Blue and Catch Him Derry, which could prove to be the form to beat.
But Got Your Back is as high as 5/1 and is a great each-way bet.
Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss
October ’24: +35.7
From May ’24: +165.62pts
From July ’23: +378.18pts
All odds correct at time of writing
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