Breeders’ Cup tips, preview and best bets at Del Mar

Breeders’ Cup tips

Juvenile Turf Sprint: Aesterius & Big Mojo (Swinger)

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Lake Victoria 11/10

Juvenile Turf: Al Qudra 6/1

Turf Sprint: Big Evs 14/1

Breeders’ Cup Turf: Rebel’s Romance 3/1

Breeders’ Cup Classic: Forever Young 6/1

Swinger

There’s lots to get through in terms of selections for the Breeders’ Cup given how many races there, especially those that are hotly contested with some familiar names from British and Irish horse racing.

The first race to focus on is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, over 5f for two-year-olds which features Aesterius, Big Mojo, Whistlejacket, Ides Of March, Magnum Force, Shareholder and Arizona Blaze from Ireland and Britain.

The latter from that list is a bit exposed given his six races already and only one win, which came on debut.

However, the rest do hold some value and potential going overseas, with Ides Of March appealing to many with Frankie Dettori on board the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt.

Wathnan Racing acquired a huge amount of talent before the flat season and continued to purchase some top horses with a significant investment in the flat.

It could pay off nicely with a couple of good places here with the winner going home with over £400,000.

The Breeders’ Cup is quite unique with the way the US races and the tracks, even the 5f containing a bend.

Big Evs won this last year under Tom Marquand for trainer Michael Appleby, a year before it was William Buick on board a Godolphin Charlie Appleby Mischief Magic that won it and the year before Twilight Gleaming, who won at Del Mar.

But there’s only a couple that really have the consistency and proven form over 5f, which is Big Evs and Aesterius who have been close up between each other before.

As this race is on the World Pool, it would be wise to bet on the tote, with a swinger bet on these two placing in the top 3 in any order.

Lake Victoria

Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien have enjoyed a fruitful season with a tonne of big group winners and a plethora of winners in general.

They could scoop a big prize here with the favourite and unbeaten, Lake Victoria.

The two-year-old filly by Frankel is clear in the betting and for good reason.

She’s already scooped over £400k in prize money and could double that with a good run here over 1m.

The step up in trip is likely to suit this Frankel filly, for obvious reasons, and her form is exceptional in a variety of conditions, Group 1 contests and over both 6f and 7f.

Al Qudra

International runners are also dominant in the Juvenile Turf, for colts, geldings and ridglings.

Contested over 1m as well, this is a top race for future stars in every sense of the word given they could become top racers and sires.

And one that really stands out is Al Qudra, his form has been franked numerous times even in past meetings he’s won in, beating New Century at Ascot in July comfortably before they reversed the placing at Woodbine next time out in September.

He’s versatile in distances too, which is rare to see a horse win or go well at each 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m as a two-year-old.

For that, he’s worth backing each-way against new and old rivals.

Big Evs

Looking at Cogburn in this Turf Sprint, over 5f for 3yo+ colts, horses and fillies etc, it’s likely he’s not the value bet here.

He beat Khaadem last time out who’s been finishing far back in top contests in Britain and while his hat-trick of wins and manner of which impressive, 5f sprints are often unpredictable.

Bradsell and Believing have been battling it out all season but were both beaten at Longchamp by Makarova, perhaps the soft ground just about edging things out there.

But back on the firm surfaces of California, perhaps it’s time for a Big Evs revival.

He beat Asfoora at Goodwood in August and after a disappointing 8th place finish at York hasn’t been seen since.

He of course won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year and now enters the older equivalent this year, albeit taking on four, five and six-year-olds.

That kind of form and experience is hard to beat, as the move abroad affects many horses differently, he looks a smart bet at a massive price each-way.

Rebel’s Romance

Now we get into the big prize money Grade 1 contests, with the Breeders’ Cup Turf over 1m4 paying out over £2 million to the winner alone and some eye watering place prizes too.

Rebel’s Romance, Emily Upjohn, Jayarebe, Luxembourg, Wingspan, Far Bridge and Shahryar front the betting from 3/1 to 12/1 at the time of writing.

It looks likely this contest will go the way of Ireland or Britain and the favourite Rebel’s Romance is sure to be right up there.

He won this race in 2022 at Keeneland by over two lengths to Stone Age, since then he’s won at Doha, Meydan, Kempton and Cologne.

The horse loves going to different countries and winning and that’s surely the case here in what is a wide open contest that is his for the taking under William Buick.

Forever Young

Now onto the biggest race of them all, the 1m2f contest with £2.86 million going to the winner, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

City Of Troy has been drawn in stall three – which has caused his price to drift a little as that stall hasn’t seen a winner out of the gates since 1998.

It’s very likely this is just as it seems though, a coincidence as lower drawn stalls do seem to contain the winners in this race in recent years.

These stats can also be skewed by the fact there have on occasions only been eight runners, compared to the 14 that ran in 2018.

Another stat that dominates the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the fact it’s only seen USA winners in well over a decade.

Due to the way these races play out it’s not always surprising to see bigger priced runners make up the placings, but the winners tend to be amongst the front in the betting.

Which only gives more reason to back the Japanese runner Forever Young.

With five wins from just six runs, with his only placed effort coming at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby, losing by a short head, he’s got a great price of 6/1 to make a big run for the international contingents.

All his runs have been on the fibresand or artificial surfaces which only boosts his chances over City Of Troy, who’s only been seen on the turf.

Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss

October ’24: +21.57

From May ’24: +155.99pts

From July ’23: +368.55pts

All odds correct at time of writing

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