The Florida Gators and Houston Cougars have advanced to the national championship.
Both teams overcame halftime deficits and went on to win, headlined by Houston’s 15-3 run to beat Duke, including a 7-point deficit with less than 1 minute and 30 seconds to go.
As for Florida, they held Auburn to less than 30 points in the second half of their game.
Below, I’ll sort through who will win the men’s college basketball national championship game.
Let’s dive in.
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Houston Cougars (1) vs Florida Gators (1) preview
No. 1 Florida beat fellow No. 1 seed and fellow SEC squad Auburn 79-73. Walter Clayton Jr. was fantastic with 34 points. Alijah Martin and Thomas Haugh also added double-digit points.
The Gators trailed 46-38 at halftime but outscored Auburn 41-27 in the second. The Gators shot 47.2% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range, and outrebounded Auburn 39-30.
As for Houston, they beat Duke 70-67. LJ Cryer had 26 points and five rebounds. J’Wan Roberts and Emanuel Sharp each added double-digit points, with Roberts also adding 12 rebounds.
The Cougars continued to shoot well from beyond the arc, making 10 of 22 shots (45.5%). Overall, they shot just 37.7% from the floor. They outrebounded Duke 45-34. Duke shot 41.2% (7 of 17) from beyond the arc.
Houston Cougars vs Florida Gators odds
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
- Spread: Houston (+1.5, -115); Florida (-1.5, -105).
- Moneyline: Houston (-104) Florida (-1151).
- Total: Over 140.5 (-110); Under 140.5 (-110)
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Houston Cougars vs Florida Gators analysis
The Cougars overcame a deficit late in the game, outscoring Duke 15-3. This is a team I’d consider to have the best defense in the country, allowing just 87.3 points per 100 possessions. That ranks first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
Offensively, they’ve been shooting the 3-point shot well, shooting 40% over their last three games. Overall, they’re the best 3-point shooting team in the country at 39.9% this season. Regarding adjusted offensive efficiency, they’re 10th at 124.1 points per 100 possessions.
Additionally, Houston allows just 58.5 points per game (first), holds teams to 38.2% from the floor (first), and 30.3% from the 3-point range (17th). That said, over their last three games, opponents have shot just 27.4% from beyond the arc.
As for the Gators, their offense is up there with Duke, averaging 128.8 points per 100 possessions (second). Defensively, they’re slightly worse than Duke, allowing 92.5 points per 100 possessions, compared to Duke’s 90.7.
The Gators also have a top-tier scorer in Walter Clayton Jr. He’s had 64 points over his last two games.
Not only that, but the team as a whole is averaging 84.4 points per game during this tournament.
Houston Cougars vs Florida Gators pick
I always said to myself that if Duke didn’t make the championship, Florida was my next pick, but now I’m not so sure.
Thus, I’m taking Houston plus the points.
Yes, it took a 15-3 run to beat Duke, but Houston is the type of team that can do that, thanks to their sensational defense.
They’re shooting well from beyond the arc while limiting opponents’ damage from back there.
They’ll do all they can to slow down Clayton Jr. and keep this one close enough to cover or win outright.
Pick Houston +1.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Houston Cougars vs Florida Gators Info
- Who: Florida (1) vs. Houston (1)
- Date: Monday, April 7
- Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Alamodome in San Antonio, TX
- Where to watch: CBS
About the author
Richard Janvrin
Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.
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