Championship relegation odds 2024/25: Predictions, and betting tips (Updated)

Oxford United, Plymouth Argyle, and Millwall started the 2024/25 Championship season as the three betting favourites to go down to League One.

After an awful start to the season, Plymouth are now the outright betting favourite.

Along with Oxford and Millwall, Wayne Rooney’s team have been joined in the betting by Preston North End and Cardiff City after both endured poor starts to their respective campaigns.

Below we look at the main relegation candidates in more detail.

Plymouth Argyle 6/5

A woeful start to the season saw the bookmakers install Plymouth as the new outright favourites to be relegated after just one match.

The appointment of Wayne Rooney was always going to be risky. He comes with a bad reputation among fans of Championship clubs.

So losing 4-0 to Sheffield Wednesday on the opening weekend of the season was as bad as it could get for the former England striker.

The result was bad enough, but the performance was arguably worse. The Pilgrims conceded a staggering 31 attempts at goal. Against a better side than Wednesday, this would have been a massacre.

Wayne Rooney’s honeymoon period didn’t even get started. Unless he can tighten up a leaky defence that conceded 70 times last season (the fourth worst record in the division), the drop looks inevitable.

Bet on Plymouth Argyle to get relegated at 6/5 with talkSPORT BET

Portsmouth 5/4

After the glory days of the Premier League in the early 2000s, Portsmouth found themselves in the fourth tier of English football when they were relegated from League One in 2013.

The road back has been a long one. Pompey spent three seasons in League Two, and at one stage were in danger of dropping out of the league and into non-league football. After promotion back to League One in 2017, the club spent seven seasons in the division before they finally made it back to the Championship as champions last season with 97 points.

Pompey won’t want to see all that hard work go to waste. Current manager John Mousinho was appointed in January 2023. In just 18 months he has taken the club a long way.

He has strengthened his playing staff by adding the experience of Matt Richie from Newcastle United and the wing play of Samuel Silvera, who has joined on a season-long loan, from Middlesbrough,

It will be difficult for Pompey to consolidate themselves in the division. But they are looking to strengthen the squad and give themselves a fighting chance. It will be touch and go if they can survive.

Bet on Portsmouth to get relegated at 5/4 with bet365

Cardiff City 19/10

Cardiff City finished 12th in the Championship last season with 62 points from 46 matches.

The Bluebirds have some big name players in their squad including Matthew Turner in goal, Calum Chambers in defence, and Wales captain Aaron Ramsey in midfield.

Ramsey’s return to the Welsh capital has been hit by injuries. But if head coach Erol Bulut can get Ramsey fit, the 2012/13 Championship winners should have no problem remaining in the division.

Bet on Cardiff City to get relegated at 19/10 with VBET

Oxford United 3/1

Teams gaining promotion to the Championship from League One are often satisfied with a season of consolidation. Oxford United would be one such team.

Ipswich Town were the exception to the norm last season. Under the leadership of Kieran McKenna, the Tractor Boys only spent one season in the Championship, with back-to-back promotions taking them from League One to the Premier League in two years.

Although no one in their right mind would turn down promotion to the Premier League, Des Buckingham would be wiser to begin by establishing the U’s in the Championship.

They got off to a decent start, defeating Norwich 2-0 in their opening match. A win that saw them replaced as the favourites to go down by Plymouth.

Maintaining that level of performance will be difficult. Unlike Ipswich, Oxford have no recent experience of this division. And that could be one of the main factors that sees them instantly return to League One.

Bet on Oxford United to get relegated at 3/1 with BetUK

Preston 11/4

It didn’t take long for things to go wrong for Preston North End this season.

Already reeling from the summer loss of influential midfielder and club captain Alan Browne (to rivals Sunderland), Ryan Lowe left after just one game of the new season, leaving the club without a manager.

In Lowe’s place, former Leeds United, Barnsley and Sheffield United manager Paul Heckingbottom has been appointed as the new Preston manager.

Heckingbottom is an experienced manager at this level, having led Sheffield United to the Premier League in the 2022/23 season.

His immediate role will be to arrest the current slide. The Lilywhites have lost their opening two matches without even scoring. Stabilising the club will be the priority. With Heckingbottom in charge, this shouldn’t be a problem.

Bet on Preston to get relegated at 11/4 with Sky Bet

Millwall 10/3

Millwall finished the 2023/24 Championship season in 13th place with 59 points.

A strong finish saw the Londoners end the campaign with five wins on the bounce and optimism was high leading into the summer break.

But instead of looking forward with hope, manager Neil Harris has endured a miserable summer with the permanent signing of the previously on loan Japhet Tanganga, along with Macaulay Langstaff the only additions to his squad. The inexperienced Daniel Kelly is set to follow from Celtic this week.

Harris has been assured by the club that more signings are to follow. But when any club’s hierarchy are giving public assurances to managers like this it sends out a clear message that all is not well behind the scenes.

If Millwall can’t get some additions to their squad ahead of the window closing, it is set to be a long hard campaign for the London club.

Bet on Millwall to get relegated at 10/3 with Paddy Power

Derby County 9/2

After relegation from the Championship in 2022, Derby County took two seasons to bounce back to the second tier of English football.

The Rams were on a downward spiral after financial problems saw them deducted points, eventually finishing in 23rd place in the Championship in 2022.

The club could have continued on their slide down the football pyramid, but a buy out by David Clowes, along with the astute managerial appointment of Paul Warne, has seen them get back to the Championship after a two season absence.

Staying in the division and further stabilising the club after all the recent turmoil has to be the priority this season.

In Warne, Derby have a calm head in charge. And along with the backing of Clowes, the duo should be able to steer the Rams clear of relegation this season.

Bet on Derby County to get relegated at 9/2 with Betfred

Swansea 13/2

The 2024/25 campaign is the seventh successive season for Swansea City in the second flight of English football.

The Swans reached the Championship playoffs in 2020 and 2021, but have largely been treading water over the past three seasons with successive mid table finishes.

Last season was a difficult one with Michael Duff sacked after five months and replaced by current manager Luke Williams. After a difficult start to life in Wales, Williams steadied the ship and eventually guided Swansea to 14th place.

Now in his first full season in charge, Williams can start with a clean slate and look to push for the playoffs. Helping him will be experienced heads in the squad like Joe Allen and Kyle Naughton.

We don’t expect to see the Swans competing at the top. But despite their short odds to be relegated, they look far stronger than most of the other teams expected to be involved in the dogfight at the bottom of the table.

Bet on Swansea to get relegated at 13/2 with Copybet

Blackburn Rovers 16/1

Before the loss of Sammie Szmodics to Ipswich Town, Blackburn Rovers might have been looking towards the top of the table, rather than the bottom.

Blackburn manager John Eustace did an exceptional job keeping the Riversiders in the division last season.

The former midfielder was also doing a good job at Birmingham City, prior to the club’s astonishing decision to sack him as head coach and replace him with Wayne Rooney. Ultimately, Birmingham’s loss was Blackburn’s gain as Rovers stayed up and City went down.

Eustace looks to be one of the club’s biggest assets. Under his leadership, along with the astute signings of Andreas Weimann and Danny Batth, Rovers should be at the very least mid-table this season.

But they can’t afford any more big names to exit the club before the end of the transfer window.

Bet on Blackburn to get relegated at 16/1 with Sky Bet

Bristol City 8/1

The Robins were one of the early favourites to be involved in the relegation battle, but a strong start has seen their odds lengthen to 8/1.

Head coach Liam Manning has only been in charge since November 2023. Manning departed Oxford United for what he considered to be a better job at Ashton Gate. He guided the club to 11th in the Championship last season, and will be looking for a higher finish in 2025.

The loss of Tommy Conway to Middlesbrough will be felt. Scott Twine has arrived from Burnley, but the midfielder was at Ashton Gate on loan last season. And although a welcome addition, he’s not a new face.

Despite this, it’s hard to see Bristol City going down. There looks to be worse teams in the division. But that doesn’t stop them getting dragged into a relegation dogfight.

And after his controversial move from Oxford United to Ashton Gate, plenty will be waiting to see if the grass really is greener on the other side for Manning. None more so than the Oxford United fans, who would love nothing more than to see the Robins go down with Manning in charge.

The pressure is certainly on Manning to deliver.

Bet on Bristol City to get relegated at 8/1 with BetMGM

My Championship relegation betting tips

It’s still very early in the 2024/25 Championship season. That makes it hard to name our picks to go down, especially given we don’t know what will happen in the remaining days of the summer transfer window.

Despite this, there are some good prices to be had at this time of the season, making it a good time to get on board. Especially if you are looking at teams that are long odds. Here are my current picks for the drop.

Relegation treble – Oxford United, Millwall, and Portsmouth

Oxford United and Portsmouth are two of the more inexperienced teams in the Championship. As a result, I can see both struggling to survive this season. Both have made respectable starts to the season. But despite this, I can see them getting found out as the season goes on.

Also likely to drop down to the third tier is Millwall. The Lions are struggling to add to their squad. They are not admitting it, but money looks tight.

Duncan Watmore has started the season well, scoring three in two. If he can keep scoring like that, the Lions will have a great chance of staying up. But Watmore only managed six goals in 50 Championship matches in the previous two seasons, so he can’t be relied upon to keep scoring.

At this moment in time I’m giving Plymouth Argyle a reprieve. Why? Because I feel Wayne Rooney will be sacked and someone else may have a better chance of keeping the Pilgrims up.

A lot can change, but Oxford, Millwall and Portsmouth are my current predictions.

Tip relegation treble – Oxford United, Millwall, and Portsmouth with bet365

Calculate your relegation treble

It is not yet possible to combine all three bets on teams to be relegated to League One.

The bookmakers listed on this page will probably start to allow combination bets to be placed later in the season.

When they do, our betting calculator below can help you work out the odds on your relegation treble.

Oxford United to finish bottom 12/1

The U’s started the season with an excellent win over Norwich. Despite this, they are not going to be spending big in the transfer market and will in the main be relying on the bulk of the players who got them promoted last season.

Unless they can get some real momentum going, I feel they will struggle with their current squad. At 12/1, the U’s look a great value bet to finish bottom of the Championship table.

Bet on Oxford United to finish bottom at bet365

Burnley to win Championship/Oxford to finish bottom double

The Clarets may have lost their previous Championship winning management duo of Vincent Kompany and Craig Bellamy, but they have made an astute appointment by getting in Scott Parker to replace them.

Parker knows his way around this division and looks good to return Burnley to the top flight at the first time of asking again.

When available, a double on Burnley to win the Championship and Oxford to finish bottom looks a great bet.

Tip double – Burnley to win Championship/Oxford to finish bottom double with bet365

Championship 2024/25 season table

The season is still young and the 2024/25 Championship table is only starting to take shape. You can find the Championship 2024/25 table here.

History of Championship relegation

In the 2023/24 Championship, 51 points were enough to secure safety. But showing just how perilous that total points was last season, Birmingham finished third bottom (22nd) on 50 points, just six points behind Watford who were in 15th place.

In previous years 50 points would have been more than enough to guarantee survival. For example, in 2022/23, Reading finished in the final relegation place on just 44 points.

In the 2021/22 season, just 38 points would have been enough to guarantee Championship football the following season. Although this was an unusually low amount.

In 2019/20, Barnsley survived on 49 points. Charlton Athletic finished in the final relegation place just one point behind the Yorkshire club.

While in the 2018/19 season, 41 points would have been enough for survival. On that occasion, Rotherham went down on 40 points, the third time they had been relegated from the Championship. Fourth from bottom, Millwall survived on 44 points.

The Championship was restructured to how it is now back in 2004. Since the restructuring Rotherham United have been relegated a record five times, with Wigan Athletic just behind on four.

Barnsley, Peterborough, and Charlton have been relegated on three occasions, with Blackpool, Bolton Wanderers, Doncaster Rovers, Millwall, Scunthorpe United and Sheffield Wednesday relegated twice.

FAQ about the 2024/25 Championship season

The English Championship is the richest non-top flight league in Europe. Furthermore, along with the 2. Bundesliga in Germany, it has the highest average attendances amongst second-tier leagues in the world. To help you further learn about the Championship, we have put together a helpful FAQ section below:

1. What teams are likely to get promoted to the Premier League this season?

The teams most likely to get promoted to the Premier League are Burnley, Luton Town, and Sheffield United, the three teams who were relegated into the Championship last season. Also expected to be pushing hard for promotion is Leeds United.

2. Which manager is likely to get sacked if the team gets relegated?

Wayne Rooney is the Championship manager most likely to be sacked if his Plymouth team is relegated. This is assuming Rooney makes it to the end of the season without getting the boot.

3. Which player is likely to be the top scorer in the Championship?

Emmanuel Latte Lath of Middlesbrough is the favourite to be top scorer in the Championship at 9/1. The Ivorian scored 16 times in 30 games for the club in the Championship last season.

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