The final day of the Premier League 2024-25 season arrives on Sunday with the title and the relegation places already decided, so the main focus will be on four matches that will determine the three teams who join Liverpool and Arsenal in the top five.
Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are all in contention to finish third, fourth and fifth and qualify for next season’s Champions League, and all five are separated by just three points as they prepare to play their 38th matches of the campaign.
With Forest and Chelsea set to face each other at the City Ground, four matches will decide which three teams get what they want and which two miss out.
We’ve picked out a best bet for each of those games, which you could also combine for a 41/1 accumulator.
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Premier League final day tips
- Manchester City to win & both teams to score vs Fulham @ 9/5
- Under 2.5 goals in Newcastle vs Everton @ 6/4
- Draw in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea @ 13/5
- Aston Villa to beat Manchester United @ 7/10
Cottagers can give City a scare
Fulham are not the kind of team opposing managers would want to be facing when they need a crucial result on the final day of the season and Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola will need his team to put their best foot forward to succeed at Craven Cottage.
The home side popped up to beat west London rivals Brentford 3-2 away last week and showed their potential to upset a top side when they beat Liverpool 3-2 last month.
Marco Silva’s side have still lost six of their last nine matches in all competitions, though, while the Citizens have dropped points in only one of their last six league games, so the visitors should prevail but it may not be easy.
City conceded in Tuesday’s 3-1 home win against Bournemouth and, with both teams scoring in six of Fulham’s last eight fixtures, the outgoing champions can be fancied to win a game in which both teams score.
Magpies may have to work hard
Newcastle will be delighted to be at St James’ Park for their decisive fixture against Everton, but the visitors have become a tricky side to play against since the return of David Moyes and the home side are likely to have to work hard for the win they need.
The Magpies have won six successive matches on Tyneside, but their 2-0 home win over Chelsea two weeks ago was followed by a 1-0 away defeat at Arsenal and now they still have work to do on the final day.
Howe is hoping to have his star striker Alexander Isak back from injury for the game, but he will have to make a late call on that and Everton have been finishing with a flourish, beating Fulham 3-1 and Southampton 2-0 in their last two games.
Neither of those teams had the talent, incentive or support behind them that Newcastle will have, but the Toffees could put in a spirited show.
The Tynesiders’ last three games have all produced under 2.5 goals, as have nine of Everton’s last 11 matches, and this could be another tight encounter after the teams drew 0-0 at Goodison Park in October.
Blues could be the team to slip up
Chelsea’s away form must be a worry for manager Enzo Maresca as his team head to the City Ground to take on top-five rivals Nottingham Forest.
The Blues’ 2-1 win at Fulham thanks to two late goals was the only time they have been successful in their last 10 away matches and they have lost at Man City, Brighton, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Newcastle in recent road trips.
Forest are unbeaten in three games, staying in the hunt for the top five by beating West Ham 2-1 last week and they gave a decent performance in their away game against Chelsea in October, taking the lead through Chris Wood and drawing 1-1 despite having James Ward-Prowse sent off.
With Chelsea missing suspended striker Nicolas Jackson, another draw between the teams looks a value bet and that result would open the door for Aston Villa.
Villa can take advantage of deflated Red Devils
Aston Villa have plenty in their favour as they head to Old Trafford to face a Manchester United team who lost the Europa League final to Tottenham on Wednesday.
The Red Devils’ trip to Bilbao will have taken a physical and mental toll and it may be hard for them to lift themselves for their final league match against a fired-up Villa side.
United have taken just two points from their last eight league matches and have won only six of their 18 top-flight games at Old Trafford this season.
Take the Villans to get three points on the board and hope for some outside assistance to secure a top-five spot.
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