Two Bantamweight bangers headline UFC 316 in Newark, New Jersey as Merab Dvalishvili looks to make his second defence as Champion in a rematch with Sean O’Malley, running back the match-up that won him the belt last September.
In the co-main event there is some bad blood as Julianna Pena defends her title against two-time Judo Olympic Gold Medalist Kayla Harrison.
Here we look at some of the best bets from the main card.
UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs O’Malley II
- Sean O’Malley to win @ 23/10
- Patchy Mix to win by Submission @ 3/1
- Kevin Holland to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 13/10
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Suga show to get back on track
Sean O’Malley (17-2-0, 1 NC) can turn the tables on Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) this weekend but it will be far from easy.
Having not been seen since losing his belt over five rounds at Sphere last September, O’Malley quickly had surgery on a torn labrum before working away from the spotlight with long-time coach Tim Welch.
O’Malley’s takedown defence and inability to get back up in the first fight was startling, but does lean into his injury narrative.
Rounds two and four were clear Dvalishvili rounds, while O’Malley won the fifth round hurting the Georgian more than once with kicks to the body.
Two of the three judges also gave O’Malley the third round, making the contest a 48-47 scorecard in their eyes.
Dvalishvili has already defended his belt at UFC 311 in January, coming out on top in a hard-fought battle with Umar Nurmagomedov; again a 48-47 scorecard from two judges in a fight where the Georgian had to come on strong in the later rounds to win.
Now on a 12-fight win streak, Dvalishvili has perfected a gameplan of wearing down his opponents with unrelenting cardio.
However he has been on an arduous schedule, this will be the 34-year-old’s fourth fight in 16 months, while he has also revealed he recently suffered a broken toe in sparring.
O’Malley comes in fresh having been diligently working on a gameplan to win back his belt, where more kicks and knees will be key after glimmers of success in the first fight.
The 30-year-old usually possesses great footwork and has the power to match as six KO’s from 10 UFC wins suggests, including when knocking out Aljamian Sterling to win the title in 2023.
No doubt it will be tough to win back the belt from the Georgian, but there is a path to victory for O’Malley and at the odds, he is worth taking a chance on.
Patchy straight in the mix
Patchy Mix (20-1-0) looks to make a statement on the main card in his UFC debut against Mario Bautista (15-2-0).
The former Bellator Champion negotiated his release from the PFL at the start of last month and took this opportunity after Marlon Vera pulled out with an injury.
The 31-year-old made two defences of his 135lb title before the company’s takeover last year, defeating both Magomed Magomedov (UD) and Sergio Pettis (Sub – R2), which followed a spectacular first-round knockout of Raufeon Stots to win the belt.
Known as “the backpack”, Mix is a fight finisher with seven of his nine wins in Bellator coming via stoppage, while as a pro he has ended 15 of 20 fights early, with 13 wins coming via submission.
Bautista is on a seven-fight win streak, securing the biggest win of his career last time out with a split decision victory over Jose Aldo.
That win leaves the 31-year-old 9-2 in the UFC following other recent wins against the likes of Ricky Simon (UD) and Da’Mon Blackshear (UD).
Of all the Bellator/PFL fighters joining the UFC, Mix could be the one that makes an instant impact and he is fancied to get yet another submission win.
Welterweight Holland worth chancing
There is plenty of UFC experience in this match-up between Vincente Luque (23-10-1) and Kevin Holland (27-13-0, 1 NC).
Luque has 24 UFC fights with 16 wins to his name and was last seen submitting Themba Gorimbo within 50 seconds of the first round at UFC 310 in December.
That victory put the 33-year-old 2-2 in his last four outings, with wins over Rafael dos Anjos (UD) sandwiched in between defeats to Joaquin Buckley (TKO – R2) and Geoff Neal (TKO – R3), with the latter seeing Luque hospitalised after the fight with a brain bleed.
Holland remains somewhat of an enimaga floating between the 170lb and 185lb divisions.
The 32-year-old returned to Welterweight with a dominant unanimous decision win over Gunnar Nelson in London in March, coming after back-to-back defeats at Middleweight.
Since 2022 Holland is 5-3 at 170lbs with his defeats coming against Michael Page (UD), now-champion Jack Della Maddalena (SD) and Stephen Thompson (TKO – R4).
Four of those wins have been via finish against Alex Oliveira (TKO – R2), Tim Means (Sub – R2), Santiago Ponzinibbio (TKO – R3) and Michael Chiesa (Sub – R1).
Holland has a six-inch reach advantage here and when fully committed to the 170lb weight class still should sit comfortably within the top 15.
The same probably can’t be said for Luque, who although still an exciting watch, doesn’t feel like the same fighter as he once was and Holland can use his range and speed advantage to get the win.
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