The sun is shining and Cheltenham is a distant memory! Aintree’s Grand National Festival kicks off on Thursday and you’d struggle to find a better day of racing with four Grade 1s straight off the bat.

We have Arkle hero Jango Baie taking his chance in the opener as well as Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth locking horns again in the Aintree Hurdle which should be a mouthwatering contest. Both Grey Dawning and Spillane’s Tower skipped Cheltenham to come here fresh and the Bowl promises to throw up a thriller as well.

I have analysed all seven races in detail on Day 1 and hopefully we can have a profitable start to an exciting three days on Merseyside.

Quick Grand National Day 1 tips

Win Singles

• Lossiemouth (Aintree Hurdle) – 13/5 with bet365
• Grey Dawning (Aintree Bowl Chase) – 2/1 with Betfred
• Jango Baie (Manifesto Novices’ Chase) – 2.65/1 with SBK
• Live Conti (Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle) – 9/2 with Sky Bet
• My Mate Mozzie (Red Rum Handicap Chase) – 5/1 with Spreadex
• Blue Betty (Nickel Coin Mares’ NH Flat Race) – 9/1 with Parimatch
• Willitgoahead (Open Hunters’ Chase) – 9/2 with bet365

Each way Double

• Live Conti
• My Mate Mozzie

Pays 37/1 with SBK

Win Trixie

• Jango Baie NEXT BEST
• Grey Dawning NAP
• Lossiemouth

Pays 26.5/1 with bet365

Top Grand National Day 1 offers

Aintree Hurdle tips

Ding Ding! Round 2 for Constitution Hill vs LOSSIEMOUTH and it is the latter I’m keen on here. I don’t think she was at her best when the pair met at Kempton earlier in the season and she probably did quite well to get within two and a half lengths of him at the line.

She went on to take a rare tumble at the Dublin Racing Festival but was quickly back on track in no uncertain terms hacking up in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last month. She looked so much happier back over two and a half miles and I think she can back up that performance here.

The trip is a big factor as Lossiemouth has run four times over two and a half miles and she has won all four of them and arguably put in her most impressive performances too. She has such a high cruising speed I can just see her tanking into this and I’m not convinced Constitution Hill wants this distance as while he won this race two years ago he wasn’t tested and he’ll need to see it out well if he is to come out on top against this progressive mare. He has a question mark hanging over him too after that fall at Cheltenham and he just looks way too short in the betting odds-on at the time of writing.

I do think the top pair are a cut above and as impressive as Wodhooh was last month she is a handicapper and this is a big step up pitched into a Grade 1 now. She is talented but hard to see her laying a glove on the market principals. It is 50/1 bar those so the top pair should fight this one out.

Aintree Hurdle trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between six and eight
• five of the last 11 winners were favourites or joint favourites and 10 of 11 top three in the betting
• 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 158 or higher
• three of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Aintree Hurdle

5 LOSSIEMOUTH

• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Jockey: Willie Mullins
• Form: 11211-111-12F1
• Age: 6yo
• Weight: 11-3

Bet on Lossiemouth to win the Aintree Hurdle at 13/5 with bet365

Aintree Bowl Chase tips

I can’t wait to see GREY DAWNING out again. I think Dan Skelton made a mistake running him in the King George after such a brave effort in the Betfair Chase and it was no surprise to see him pulled up. He was given time after that and looked rejuvenated winning readily at Kelso.

He put a good horse in Iroko in his place that day and it was great to see him in such a good rhythm and jumping so well. It looks a good decision to have skipped Cheltenham and coming here fresh he looks really tough to beat and he is my strongest bet on Day 1.

Spillane’s Tower also ran in the King George and wasn’t disgraced finishing fifth. He has also been given time to get over them excursions and missed Cheltenham as well. His form before the King George beaten half a length by Fact To File looks really good now and he is the obvious danger on form if bouncing back to his best.

He probably wants softer ground though so that was enough to put me off. A lot like the selection though he is still a horse with bags of potential so he could run well despite conditions.

Ahoy Senor isn’t getting any younger now a 10yo but he likes it here and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him chase home the two mentioned above. He fell in the Gold Cup last month but if his jumping holds up don’t underestimate him. Gaelic Warrior ended up missing Cheltenham but he has enough to prove after a pretty dismal display at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Aintree Bowl Chase trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between eight and 10
• seven of the last 11 winners were favourites and nine of 11 top three in the betting
• nine of the last 11 winners were rated 168 or higher
• eight of the last 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree

5 GREY DAWNING

• Trainer: Dan Skelton
• Jockey: Harry Skelton
• Form: 11-2111F-312113-2PU1
• Age: 8yo
• Weight: 11-10

Bet on Grey Dawning to win the Aintree Bowl Chase at 2/1 with Betfred

Manifesto Novices’ Chase tips

The way JANGO BAIE stayed on to split rivals and win the Arkle at Cheltenham last month was really impressive. I think it was quite obvious he was outpaced for much of the race but it shows you what an engine he has to run them down in the closing stages.

I know he could be considered fortunate with Majborough making bad mistakes at the last two flights but jumping is the name of the game and he showed a great attitude to come through in the closing stages under Nico de Boinville. He has only had three starts over fences so is open to plenty of improvement and back up in trip here I expect him to take an awful lot of beating.

Impaire Et Passe somehow clung on to win the Aintree Hurdle here last year and has taken well to fences winning at Fairyhouse and Limerick before third behind Ballyburn at the Dublin Racing Festival. I don’t think he was at his best that day so if bouncing back with the drop back in trip probably a plus he should make a race of it. Croke Park is plenty talented and was in front of Impaire Et Passe at Leopardstown last time so shouldn’t be ignored either as is clearly going the right way.

Gidleigh Park is the dark horse in the race and if he builds on that four-length defeat of Caldwell Potter at Windsor then he has the potential to get involved as well but he has clearly had his issues and there won’t be any hiding place here. His jumping worries me a bit too. Rubaud dug in bravely to win at Kempton when last seen but this requires a step up again.

Manifesto Novices’ Chase trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between six and eight
• nine of the last 11 winners were in the top three in the betting
• nine of the last 11 winners were rated 150 or higher
• seven of the last 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree

6 JANGO BAIE

• Trainer: Nicky Henderson
• Jockey: Nico de Boinville
• Form: 11222-121
• Age: 6yo
• Weight: 11-7

Bet on Jango Baie to win the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at 2.65/1 with SBK

Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle tips

Puturhandstogether won the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival last month under just hands and heels so he must be feared as he is clearly a progressive horse. I want to side with potential on this occasion though as LIVE CONTI really stands out to me. Dan Skelton decided to skip Cheltenham and give him more time and that is understandable as he does look a bit of a baby still.

He did amazingly well to win on debut in France before being snapped up by connections and sent to this yard. He was then sent off cramped odds on stable debut and made all the running convincingly as expected. He is open to any amount of improvement and I get the impression he could be quite an exciting horse. Sir Gino won it last year so it is often won by a smart enough horse.

It is not just a two-horse race though as Mambonumberfive impressed winning the Adonis at Kempton and he has plenty of scope so is expected to improve a fair bit on that. He could be worth an each way saver especially if there are enhanced place terms on the race. Naturally Nimble was a good fourth behind Hello Neighbour at the Dublin Racing Festival and is another one who shouldn’t be completely ignored.

Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle trends

• four of the last 11 favourites have won
• seven of the last 11 winners were in the top three in the betting
• 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 138 or higher
• one of the last 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree

6 LIVE CONTI

• Trainer: Dan Skelton
• Jockey: Harry Skelton
• Form: 1
• Age: 4yo
• Weight: 11-2

Live Conti to win the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle at 9/2 with Sky Bet

Red Rum Handicap Chase tips

This is arguably the most competitive race on Day 1 with 14 horses heading to post. MY MATE MOZZIE definitely catches the eye for Gavin Cromwell. He is such a strong travelling horse and I thought he caught the eye finishing fourth behind Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last month. A repeat of that could see him as the one to beat with this flatter track and better ground both positives as well. I’m surprised he hasn’t run at this track before as it looks like it will really suit him.

Plenty of dangers as you’d expect and General Medrano I can see being suited by this test. He is a horse who likes to be filled up as the race goes on so if things pan out favourably he could get competitive. Obviously he has ground to make up with the selection having finished eighth in the Grand Annual.

Primoz is likely to go off favourite but his overall profile doesn’t convince and he can down tools quickly if things don’t go his way so a word of warning if you’re thinking about backing him. The Folkes Tiara has been consistent and has been freshened up for this so must also enter calculations.

Red Rum Handicap Chase trends

• nine of the last 11 winners were aged between six and nine
• eight of the last 11 winners carried between 10 stone 5lbs and 11 stone 1lbs
• nine of the last 11 winners were rated between 130 and 139
• nine of the last 11 winners had at least four runs that season

3 MY MATE MOZZIE

• Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
• Jockey: Keith Donoghue
• Form: 12-11283212432-71352126-33914-24
• Age: 9yo
• Weight: 11-13

My Mate Mozzie to win the Red Rum Handicap Chase at 5/1 with Spreadex

Nickel Coin Mares’ NH Flat Race tips

I try not to have a strong opinion in bumpers as usually they are a bunch of babies running around in circles so it can be a bit of a guessing game. Fergal O’Brien targets this race and won it two years ago with Dysart Enos and he has three heading to post this year.

I like BLUE BETTY who seems a big price at around 8/1 at the time of writing. She bolted up on debut at Newcastle back in January and I thought it was quite notable that she was heavily backed that day. Put away since they would have had this targeted and she can run well.

Seo Linn beat Siog Geal at Cheltenham back in November and that form looks pretty decent so with more to come she is one of the dangers. She is likely to go off favourite though so little value in her price. Charisma Cat picked up well to win at Sandown last month and is another one to note along with Strong Run who is a stablemate to the selection and she likely has more to come but probably wants softer ground and it is drying out all the time.

Nickel Coin Mares’ NH Flat Race trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged five or six
• two of the last 11 winners were favourites
• six of the last 11 winners won on their last run before
• nine of the last 11 winners were rated 105 or higher

3 BLUE BETTY

• Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
• Jockey: Kielan Woods
• Form: 1
• Age: 5yo
• Weight: 11-2

Blue Betty to win the Nickel Coin Mares’ NH Flat Race at 9/1 with Parimatch

Open Hunters’ Chase tips

A lot like the bumper I don’t have a strong opinion in this either as it is a hunter chase. My Drogo was a talented horse for Dan Skelton before he got injured. He looks to have been making up for lost time with new connections though and could be a danger to all.

I’m chancing WILLITGOAHEAD though for Gordon Elliott. This 7yo ran an eye-catching race behind Wonderwall at Cheltenham last month and if building on that again could go close here. I think this flatter track will suit much better and he is still very much unexposed.

Lifetime Ambition is likely to go off favourite and he arrives full of confidence chasing a hat-trick so could be one of the main dangers. Famous Clermont is a strong travelling horse who was back in the winners enclosure at Stratford on final start last season and has been kept fresh likely with this in mind as he goes particularly well at this track. Joker De Mai won with Maxwell on board last month and is another one who you could see getting competitive.

28 WILLITGOAHEAD

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: J L Scallan
• Form: 213
• Age: 7yo
• Weight: 12-0

Willitgoahead to win the Open Hunters’ Chase at 9/2 with bet365

Grand National Day 1 race schedule

TIME	RACE	DISTANCE	TYPE
13:20	EBC Group Manifesto Novices’ Chase	2m 4f	Grade 1
14:20	Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle	2m 1f	Grade 1
14:55	Brooklands Golden Miller Chronograph Bowl Chase	3m 1f	Grade 1
15:30	William Hill Aintree Hurdle	2m 4f	Grade 1
16:05	Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase	2m 5f	Class 2
16:40	Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase	2m	Premier Handicap
17:15	Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat Race	2m 1f	Grade 2

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