Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, has advanced to the Final Four after beating Michigan State.

Now, they will take on the team that won their conference (SEC) tournament, the Florida Gators.

Auburn lost in the semi-finals of that tournament to Tennessee, while Florida pummeled Tennessee. 

Now, we’ll see which of these two SEC schools is headed to the national championship. 

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Auburn (1) vs Florida (1)

No. 1 Auburn took on No. 2 Michigan State and beat them 70-64. They held a commanding 33-24 halftime lead, and Michigan State could barely lessen the deficit.

They did outscore Auburn 40-37 in the second half, but it felt like every time Michigan State hit a shot, Auburn responded. Auburn’s Johni Broome had 25 points and 14 rebounds, leading the Tigers to victory. Auburn shot just 7 of 25 (28% from 3-point range). 

As for Florida, it was a close game between them and No. 3 Texas Tech. In fact, with about three minutes to go, Florida trailed by nearly double digits.

Then, in under two minutes, they were down three before a pair of 3-point shots from Walter Clayton Jr. got them the lead. Florida shot 43.9% from the field and 37.5% from 3-point range. Texas Tech shot just 7 of 13 (53.8%) from the free throw line.

Auburn vs Florida odds

Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. 

• Spread: Auburn (+2.5, -108); Florida (-2.5, -112). 
• Moneyline: Auburn (+122) Florida (-146). 
• Total: Over 160.5 (-115); Under 160.5 (-105)

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Auburn vs Florida analysis

Florida and Auburn played earlier this season, and at one point, Florida held a 21-point lead before winning 90-81 on the road. 

The key for Auburn is Johni Broome, and while I don’t think he’ll be completely silenced, Florida has more than competent big men like Alex Condon and even Thomas Haugh that can present a challenge. It’s also worth noting that Broome suffered an arm injury during their matchup against Michigan State. 

He came back in and played, but you could tell it still bothered him. 

After Broome, it’s understandable to question the scorers behind him as they mostly—Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Mile Kelly, and Denver Jones—average more 3-point shot attempts than 2-point attempts. 

The only exception is Baker-Mazara, who attempts 4.5 2-point shots compared to 4.0 3-point tries. 

Over their last three games, Florida has held teams to a 3-point shooting percentage of just 32%. Auburn has also been shooting less than 29% from 3-point range over the last two games.

Auburn vs Florida pick

The pick here is Florida. Auburn may be the No. 1 overall seed, but Florida has won 10 straight, won the SEC tournament, and beat Auburn earlier this season. 

The bigs will challenge a somewhat maimed Broome, and Clayton Jr. will continue to showcase his dominating presence. 

Florida wins and covers.

Pick Florida -2.5 (-112) at FanDuel

Auburn vs Florida Game Info

• Who: Florida vs. Auburn
• Date: Saturday, April 5
• Time: 6:09 p.m. ET 
• Location: Alamodome in San Antonio, TX
• Where to watch: CBS

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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