Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals of the Arkle with El Fabiolo and Gaelic Warrior and with Sir Gino sadly ruled out for the rest of the season he will be looking to make it 3 in a row with the well regarded Majborough.
There is no hiding place in this speed test over 2 miles though so will his jumping hold up that is the big question?
My quick picks for the Arkle Chase
- Majborough – 8/13 with Sky Bet
- Only By Night – 12/1 with Sky Bet
Cheltenham 2.00 My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase – Key stats and trends
Age
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
- 5 of the last 7 winners were aged 6
Price
- 9 of the last 12 winners were favourites
- 10 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Only 1 double-figure winner in the last 10 renewals
Form
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
- 11 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Arkle
- 9 of the last 12 winners ran within the last 51 days
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
Rating
- 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 157 or higher
- All of the last 4 winners were rated 157 or higher
Other pointers
- 10 of the last 13 winners were favourites including 7 odds-on shots that’s a 77% strike rate
- Willie Mullins has won the race 6 times with Paul Townend riding 3 of them
Supreme Novices Hurdle preview & tips
Everything looks in place for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend to win this race for the third year on the trot. I was with MAJBOROUGH at the Cheltenham Festival last year where he put in an impressive performance to win the Triumph.
Given his size and scope and the fact chasing was always going to be his game I think that is a credit to his ability that he managed to win a hurdles race as competitive as that at the Festival. His trainer has always spoke about him as an exciting horse and he may well develop into a Gold Cup horse further down the line.
He has gone 2-2 over fences so far winning by 6 and a half lengths on chase debut at Fairyhouse before following up by 9 lengths at the DRF. He did make the odd error there but to my eye never looked like falling and with further improvement to come I’m struggling to see him beaten and with Sir Gino now out is deservedly a short price.
Each way angle?
It is usually worth having an each way bet in the Arkle as looking back through the years it has had 8 runners or more in 7 of the last 10 renewals. Gidleigh Park is likely to come out though as he has suffered another setback and Ballyburn will be heading to the Brown Advisory on the Wednesday so it will cut up a bit yet.
L’eau du Sud is currently second favourite but I haven’t been convinced by him and Gavin Cromwell has come out and said he is definitely leaning towards this race instead of the Mares’ Chase with ONLY BY NIGHT.
She is around 10/1 which is too big for a mare that is yet to taste defeat over fences and gets the 7lb allowance. She needs to improve on the bare form of course but is likeable and could be suited if they go too hard early.
My picks:
- MAJBOROUGH
- Trainer: Willie Mullins
- Form: 31-11
- Age: 5
- Weight: 11-7
Bet on Majborough to win the Arkle Chase at 8/13 with Sky Bet
- ONLY BY NIGHT
- Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
- Form: 3-111373-111
- Age: 7
- Weight: 11-0
Bet on Only By Night to win the Arkle Chase at 12/1 with Sky Bet
Last 12 winners of the Arkle Chase
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Simonsig | Nicky Henderson | Barry Geraghty |
| 2014 | Western Warhorse | David Pipe | Tom Scudamore |
| 2015 | Un de Sceaux | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2016 | Douvan | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2017 | Altior | Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville |
| 2018 | Footpad | Willie Mullins | Ruby Walsh |
| 2019 | Duc des Genievres | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend |
| 2020 | Put The Kettle On | Henry de Bromhead | Aidan Coleman |
| 2021 | Shishkin | Nicky Henderson | Nico de Boinville |
| 2022 | Edwardstone | Alan King | Tom Cannon |
| 2023 | El Fabiolo | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend |
| 2024 | Gaelic Warrior | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend |
More Cheltenham opportunities:
About the author
Joe Norris
I’m Joe Norris, co-founder and Director of GetYourTipsOut (GYTO), which I launched in 2009 to provide daily sports betting tips, with the main focus on horse racing. Over the years, I’ve earned a reputation for offering reliable and profitable tips, which led to being named “Best Sports Betting Tipster” in 2023. Alongside my work at GYTO, I also contribute predictions to platforms like Oddschecker, allowing me to share my insights with a wide community of sports enthusiasts and bettors.
Find Joe on X: @JoeNorrisGYTO
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