In one of the four matchups in the Elite 8, two of the nation’s very best offenses will square off as No. 1 Duke takes on No. 2 Alabama.
Duke, equipped with the likely No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft should he choose to depart, Cooper Flagg, is now just three wins away from hoisting a national championship.
Alabama and Duke last met in November 2013, and the Blue Devils won 74-64.
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Duke (1) vs Alabama (2)
Heading into the Elite 8, No. 1 Duke has been on a tear in the tournament, beating No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s (93-49), No. 9 Baylor (89-66), and most recently, No. 4 Arizona (100-93).
In the Sweet 16 against Arizona, the game felt back and forth in the first half until Duke took a 48-42 lead, including a buzzer-beater 3-point shot from Cooper Flagg. Over these last three games, the Blue Devils are shooting 57.1% from the floor and 47.4% from 3-point range.
As for No. 2 Alabama, they’ve beaten No. 15 Robert Morris (90-81), No. 7 Saint Mary’s (80-66), and in the Sweet 16, No. 6 BYU (113-88). Against BYU, Alabama was unconscious, making 25 of 51 3-point shots (49%).
For context, they typically attempt 29.8 3-point shots per game (sixth in the nation). Guard Mark Sears had 34 points, 8 assists, and 3 rebounds. BYU shot just 20% (6 of 30) from beyond the arc.
Duke vs Alabama odds
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
- Spread: Alabama (+6.5, -106); Duke (-6.5, -114).
- Moneyline: Alabama (+225); Duke (-280).
- Total: Over 174.5 (-110); Under 174.5 (-110)
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Duke vs Alabama analysis
If you’re a fan of points being scored, then strap in because you’re about to witness a track meet.
Duke is KenPom’s No. 1 overall team. The squad is No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 130.2 points per 100 possessions. They also allow just 91.3 points per 100 possessions (fifth).
As for Alabama, they’re the No. 6 overall team, scoring 127.4 points per 100 possessions (fourth) and allowing 96.5 points per 100 possessions (27th).
On a per-game basis, no one averages more points than Alabama, which sits at 91.4 points this season. Over their last three games, they’re up to 94.3 points. Duke is right behind them at 94.0.
These are also two teams shooting at least 54.4% from the floor over their last three games. Even with their 25 made 3-point shots and shooting 51% from beyond the arc, Alabama is shooting 42.7% from there over their last three games while Duke is at 47.4%.
Going back to a per-game basis and examining points allowed, this has been Alabama’s Achilles heel this season, as they allow 81.2 points (347th). Duke surrenders just 62.5 (fifth). That number is up to 69.3 for Duke over their last three games, and for Alabama, it’s nearly 10 points higher at 78.3.
Duke vs Alabama pick
Laying 6.5 points against an offense like Alabama is tough to do, but I cannot be talked out of Duke here. I think the Blue Devils simply have a better team and better players, play a more disciplined brand of basketball, and are exponentially better defensively.
Alabama caught fire from 3-point range in the Sweet 16. It’s possible that could happen again, but this season, Duke is 36th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at just 31.0%.
Duke has been shooting lights out, and you could argue there could be some regression, but they’ve been incredibly consistent during the tournament, and I don’t think that stops now against an Alabama defensive unit that allowed 81 to a No. 15 seed.
Back Duke -6.5 (-114) at FanDuel
Duke vs Alabama game Info
- Who: Duke vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, March 29
- Time: 8:49 pm ET
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
- Where to watch: TBS/truTV
About the author
Richard Janvrin
Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.
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