If Florida has any kind of edge heading into this game, it’ll be the incredible finish to Texas Tech’s close-call win over No. 10 Arkansas.
As for the Florida Gators, they continue to show why they’re arguably the best team in the tournament as one of the four remaining No. 1 seeds.
Florida has a history of national championships, winning back-to-back ones in 2006 and 2007, and they’re poised for another run.
This game will be the first of the four Elite 8 games on Saturday, March 29, at 6:09 p.m. ET.
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Florida (1) vs Texas Tech (3)
No. 1 Florida surged through the Round of 64, trampling Norfolk State 95-69. Then, in the Round of 32, they met the two-time defending national champions, the UConn Huskies, and it came right down the wire.
They survived, though, beating them 77-75. Then, in the Sweet 16, they didn’t seem to have too many issues against the Maryland Terrapins, led by who I believe will be a top-five selection in the 2025 NBA Draft Derik Queen.
The game was 40-38 at halftime, but Florida came out in the second half, outscoring them 47-33. Part of their success was winning the rebound battle decisively, 42-20.
Now, the Gators will take on No. 3 Texas Tech. Leading up to this game, they’ve beaten No. 14 UNC Wilmington (82-72), No. 11 Drake (77-64), and Arkansas (85-83).
Their game against Arkansas was one of the most exciting of the tournament. It went into overtime. The Red Raiders trailed 38-31 at halftime and, at one point, were down 16 points. They put up 41 in the second half, sent the game to overtime, and pulled off the win with Arkansas missing a buzzer-beater to tie.
JT Toppin, Darrion Williams, and Christian Anderson combined for 62 of the Red Raiders 85 points.
Florida vs Texas Tech
Below are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.
- Spread: Texas Tech (+6.5, -110); Florida (-6.5, -110).
- Moneyline: Texas Tech (+210); Florida (-260).
- Total: Over 155.5 (-115); Under 155.5 (-105)
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Florida vs Texas Tech analysis
Coming out of the Sweet 16, Florida is KenPom’s No. 2 team. They’re second in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 129.2 points per 100 possessions. They’re also ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 92.9 points per 100 possessions.
As for Texas Tech, they’re the No. 9 squad. They average 125.3 points per 100 possessions (fifth) and allow 97.5 points per 100 possessions (39th).
This season, Texas Tech is a 36.7% 3-point shooting team, but that hasn’t been the case in the tournament—they’re shooting just 25.0% from 3-point range.
This team mainly relies on Toppin and Williams. Anderson has stepped up big for them with Chance McMillian out. It’s unclear if he’ll suit up. With such a short turnaround time and dealing with an oblique injury, it’s hard to know if he’ll be good to go.
As for Florida, this team has plenty of depth and is led by Walter Clayton Jr. The Gators have 10 players that average double-digit minutes, five players that shoot 35.7% or better from 3-point range, and four that average double-digit points.
Teams against Florida are shooting just 25.8% from 3-point range this tournament.
Florida vs Texas Tech pick
This is a tough call. The better overall team is Florida, but Texas Tech is a team that can red hot with their trio. There’s also the variable of whether or not McMillian will play.
There are two trains of thought here:
One, Texas Tech regresses closer to the mean of 3-point shooting and has a chance to upset Florida.
Or two, Florida’s depth and defensive prowess continues to hold them down from beyond the arc like they have all three opponents thus far in the tournament.
I’ll lean Florida here. However, if I knew McMillian was going to play and you could get this same line, I’d take Texas Tech.
Back Florida -6.5 (-110) FanDuel
Florida vs Texas Tech Game Info
- Who: Florida vs Texas Tech
- Date: Saturday, March 29
- Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
About the author
Richard Janvrin
Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.
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