Friday horse racing tips: Best bets at Cheltenham Festival 2025 from Tom Lunn

Friday racing tips

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
1.20: East India Dock 2/1
2.00: Absurde 6/1 each-way
2.40: Dinoblue 6/5
3.20: Wendigo 8/1 & Intense Approach 16/1 each-way
4.00: Galopin Des Champs & Banbridge – Forecast
4.40: What A Glance 40/1 each-way
5.20: Wodhooh 9/2 & No Questions Asked 20/1 each-way

East India Dock – 1.5pts

The Triumph Hurdle this year has a different feel to it with no clear favourite – though only five favourites have won in the last ten renewals and the shortest prices have come from Lossiemouth at 11/8 and Vauban at 6/4.

And Irish trainer Willie Mullins’ shortest price in the race this year is Lady Vega Allen now around a 9/1 shot.

That’s partly due to her facing four unbeaten geldings who occupy the front three in the market.

Lulamba impressed a few with his comfortable win at Ascot in January while East India Dock has won by a distance in each of his three starts over hurdles.

He appeals over any other horse so far as the course and distance form can often prove to be invaluable.

We may be put off going for favourites after the first two days saw some heavy odds-on shots lose. Then Thursday was steeped in big fields making it tough to see shorter price leaders in the betting win.

And as these are four-years-old there’s always a chance a few will be saving their best for this.

But East India Dock also looks like he’s barely touched his best form yet and has been incredibly impressive.

Absurde – 1pt

Eight out of the last ten winners of the County Handicap Hurdle had not had previous festival form.

Absurde won this race last year which was also his last such hurdle race, before going back to the flat placing a close fifth in the Melbourne Cup in Australia.

He took a similar route last year but did have two prep runs where he bumped into Caldwell Potter and Ballyburn on what was just his third and fourth start over obstacles.

Kargese looks very easy to back for trainer Willie Mullins under Paul Townend even though the mare has placed a close second in three of her last four starts.

Her form is incredibly impressive only being beaten last year by Majborough, Sir Gino and Kala Conti.

She did however get turned over at 2/5 odds to Take No Chances so she comes with risk attached still.

Valgrand looked like a real star over hurdles for the Skeltons earlier this season.

The gelding bolted up to beat Gale Mahler by 17 lengths but has been disappointing in each of his last three contests, so could be dangerously weighted, but too comes with risk attached.

Which suggests to me a 6/1 price on Absurde is very appealing.

Dinoblue – 2pts

The Mares’ Chase is another very competitive clash on the Friday card.

Limerick Lace won this last year and is an each-way punt this time with Dinoblue and Allegorie De Vassy ahead in the betting.

Dinoblue was only denied by less than a length at Cheltenham last year behind Limerick Lace, in what was a bit of a shock as the Willie Mullins-trained horse was the favourite – despite carrying 5lb more.

The mare hasn’t been seen over 2m4f/2m5f since but has returned to winning ways, beating Allegorie De Vassy by a neck at Naas earlier in February.

Every winner of the Mares’ Chase so far in its four runnings has been won by a mare that have all placed in the top three in all of their previous runs leading up to victory at the festival.

Limerick Lace just hasn’t quite been the same since winning that race finishing well off the pace in each of her three starts since, which may have something to do with her running in the Grand National a month after Cheltenham.

Paul Townend opts for the Rich Ricci-owned horse but the JP McManus-owned duty often falls to Mark Walsh, so you can’t read too much into that.

Her only losses since failing to win to Limerick Lace last year, were to Banbridge, Energumene and then in December Solness, Gaelic Warrior and Marine Nationale.

She sets the standard in what could be a huge day for favourites for punters to make up for the first two days for many.

Wendigo – 1.5pts & Intense Approach – 1pt

Next up is the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, this race like many on the Friday take place on the ‘New’ course, this over 3m.

And this year’s race is wide open with the prices starting at around 4/1 while this race throws out huge prices with the last ten producing: 33/1, 18/1, 14/1, a 5/1, 50/1, 16/1 and 11/1 winners.

This is for novices many of whom are yet to show their full potential, let alone their full potential over 3m, where most of them haven’t even attempted a stamina test yet.

Winners of this race need to have that bit of grit and determination in their attitude, which helps massively in a contest over 3m with a likely honest pace.

Wendigo looks very interesting. He comes from a yard in top form with 6 winners in 12 with Gavin Sheehan also bringing in a great run of form with a 24% strike-rate (both as of Wednesday).

He’s still just six-years-old, ticks a lot of boxes in that he looks like he could stay well and relish the step up in trip, coupled with being a solid winner.

He was only beaten by five lengths to The New Lion in the Challow Hurdle, where that form has been significantly boosted, especially if he’s better suited to 3m.

With 20 runners it would actually be unwise not to back two strong contenders.

And Intense Approach at around 16/1 and shortening still, is very capable of being a big each-way play.

He’s won his two races when stepped up to an even 3m yet has only been upped 3lb. Albeit you can see why a handicapper would be reluctant to raise him too high as Gale Mahler has been dropping down the weights. He’s got course form and has only ever placed in the top 2.

Forecast – 2pts

At this point it’s only winning bets that you want so Galopin Des Champs to win this for the third straight year is the best for racing for sure.

That makes it a race between the rest of the field opening up the odds and providing a bit more value.

Banbridge is the second favourite at the moment but may drift if Fact To File backers hammer the odds in.

Either way I’d be keen on seeing Banbridge improve over this distance as he’s still so unexposed over this distance, having won on his first outing over 3m last time out beating Il Est Francais nicely at 7/1 at Kempton on Boxing Day.

What A Glance 1pt

The St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup is the Open Hunters’ Chase, which has in the last ten years been dominated by experience stayers aged ten or 11. Sine Nomine was the exception last year winning at 8/1 at the age of eight.

Shearer has gone unbeaten in four starts over a variety of distances in hunter chases winning the last two under retained rider Miss Olive Nicholls.

Angels Dawn is an interesting one at the top of the market having won the Kim Muir in 2023 and fell when challenging in last year’s renewal. He’s only been seen in point-to-points since winning both times as favourite.

What A Glance is surprisingly 40/1 to win this and looks huge value. He’s rated 140 so is right up there at the top, has course form, still a bit unexposed over this kind of race and even won the Open Hunters’ Chase in May 2024 at this course.

He was 6/4 in a point to point on New Year’s Eve but placed just narrowly behind Allmankind who is just 12/1 for this race.

Wodhooh – 1pt & No Questions Asked – 1pt

The final race of the festival is the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle perfect for future stars, having thrown out winners like Banbridge, Iroko and Galopin Des Champs.

It’s very tough not to back Wodhooh as his form has proven to be great in fact, he’s 6-6 over hurdles now and looks a horse that loves to win.

I think he was still in control last time out, over course and distance, and may have more in his locker to help with the rise in the weights.

The mare beat Joyeuse, Take No Chances and Royale Margaux who have each won since.

No Questions Asked is a bit of a punt each-way as his price looks a bit too big for his ability.

He was upped 14lb for his latest win but that’s because the handicapper was looking to catch up with his progression as it’s turned out very good form, similar to Wodhooh.

Tom Lunn’s Horse Racing P/L

March 2025: +33.44pts
From May ’24: +217.82pts
From July ’23: +357.29pts

All odds correct at time of writing

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