League Two relegation odds: 2024/25 predictions, and betting tips

Sutton United and Forest Green dropped out of League Two and into the National League last season. Two more clubs will make the drop in the 2024/25 season, here we look at the main candidates in more detail:

Morecambe (11/10)

Morecambe was relegated from League One at the end of the 2022/23 season alongside MK Dons, Accrington Stanley and Forest Green.

Ironically, Forest Green were relegated from League Two last season, and Accrington are one of the favourites, along with Morecambe, to go down this season.

Morecambe did a lot better than Forest Green last season, they finished in 15th position, 16 points above the drop zone.

In the summer months they reappointed Derek Adams as their manager. This will be his third spell in charge of the Shrimps, which is never a good sign.

Uncertainty over the ownership of the club over the summer months has left Morecambe starting the season on the back foot.

As recently as May, the Shrimps had no manager, no chief executive and only one player contracted to start the current season. They were also deducted three points last season.

Overall, Morecambe is a mess. But there are some positives.

In July, a transfer embargo was lifted allowing the club to sign practically a new squad of players.

But the good news ends there. The damage already looks to have been done. And barring a miracle from Derek Adams, the Shrimps look doomed to non-league football next season.

Bet on Morecambe to get relegated at 11/10 with bet365

Accrington (2/1)

Accrington Stanley went into the 2024/25 season as one a handful of clubs in the mix for the drop.

But after a poor start, they are now one of the firm favourites to go down at 5/2, and they are also second-favourite to finish rock bottom at 5/1.

Accrington were relegated from League One in the 2022/23 season. In their 2023/24 League Two campaign, they finished 17th on 57 points, 15 above the drop zone.

Long standing manager John Coleman was sacked by Accrington in March.

Coleman had been at the club for nine and a half years. First team coach John Doolan was originally placed in temporary charge, but was upgraded to permanent manager shortly afterwards.

This is Doolan’s first go at being a manager. But he has been at Accrington since 2017, so his appointment gives the club continuity if nothing else.

Accrington have brought in Farrend Rawson and Donald Love on permanent deals. They have also added Billy Crellin, Nelson Khumbeni, Sonny Aljofree and Jake Batty on loan. Whether that is enough to stave off relegation is debatable.

We can only see it being a season of struggle for Accrington.

Bet on Accrington to finish bottom two at 2/1 with Sky Bet

Harrogate Town (9/2)

Harrogate Town are 11/4 to be relegated and 11/2 to finish rock bottom of League Two.

Town has been in League Two since gaining promotion from the National League in the 2019/20 season.

Life has been tough for the Sulphurites in the football league. In their four completed seasons in the division, last season’s 13th place finish is the best they have achieved.

Despite finishing clear of the drop zone in all four of their seasons in League Two, the club has, at times, flirted with the drop zone. Ultimately, manager Simon Weaver has always found a way to maintain their league status.

Weaver has been in charge at Wetherby Road since 2009. His steady hand oversaw their promotion in 2020, and their continued survival since.

The club is prudent. They don’t take risks and play loose with the finances. As a result, every year they are touted as relegation candidates. But every year, they find a way to survive.

The 2024/25 season is set to be no different. We kind of know what to expect from Harrogate. Whether it is enough to stave off relegation again is likely to depend on how well or poorly the other teams in the bottom half of the table perform.

Bet on Harrogate Town to get relegated at 9/2 with Paddy Power

Swindon Town (13/2)

Swindon Town had a poor 2023/24 season, finishing 19th in League Two on 54 points, just 12 above the relegation zone.

The poor showing was mainly down to shocking home form that saw the Robins lose ten matches at the County Ground.

Home form like that is usually a recipe for relegation.

Michael Flynn was sacked as manager in January. He was replaced by Gavin Cunning on a caretaker basis until the end of the season. Cunning was very critical of his players during his spell, at one time questioning their heart and commitment. Ultimately, he kept them in the division.

Swindon owner Clem Morfuni appointed former Macclesfield Town and Lincoln City manager Mark Kennedy as the new head coach in May.

Kennedy has a modest managerial record to put it mildly. And whether he can turn the fortunes of the club around remains to be seen.

Further muddying the waters is a dispute between the fans and owner Clem Morfuni. The fans are unhappy with how the club is being run and are calling on Morfuni to sell up.

Whilst acknowledging things need to improve, Morfuni is refusing to budge.

Including interim managers, Swindon has had eight managers since July 2021. That’s a high turnover and a clear sign that something is wrong behind the scenes at the club.

Don’t be surprised to see the Robins in the middle of the relegation battle this season.

Bet on Swindon Town to get relegated at 13/2 with Betfred

Crewe (14/1)

Crewe made it all the way to the playoff finals last season, but this year they find themselves amongst the betting favourites to be relegated to the National League.

Does that sound strange? Maybe. But when you look at Crewe’s end of season form, you begin to understand why.

Crewe manager Lee Bell got the Railwaymen off to a flying start last season. After a 3-1 away win at Barrow on January 20th, Crewe sat 4th in the table. That was their fourth consecutive win.

After that, the Alex only won five of their last 18 matches. Worse still, just one win in their last nine in the league.

The playoff final was a bit of a disaster as well. Crewe were outplayed by Crawley on the day and never really looked threatening at all.

The rejection of new contracts by Luke Offord and Elliott Nevitt sum up where Crewe are. Both left for League Two rivals, not to join clubs in higher leagues.

The Railwaymen should still have too much quality to go down.

Bet on Crewe to get relegated at 14/1 with talkSPORT BET

Colchester (10/1)

The 2024/25 season will be Colchester’s ninth successive in League Two.

But it very nearly wasn’t. The U’s finished 22nd in the 2023/24 campaign, just one position and three points above the relegation zone. A 1-1 draw with Crewe on the final day of the season ensured another campaign in League Two.

Danny Cowley – and obviously his brother – are now in charge at the Colchester Community Stadium. Cowley was appointed in January, following the sacking of previous boss Matthew Etherington.

Etherington was shown the door after a run of eight losses in nine matches. When he departed, Colchester were one position and five points above the drop zone.

Despite finishing the season two points closer to the relegation zone than the team was when Etherington was dismissed, the Colchester fans have taken to Cowley.

The poor results may have continued throughout the second half of the season, but Cowley did make the U’s more difficult to beat.

But the facts are that Colchester won just 11 of their 46 matches last season. They only managed 59 goals, and conceded 80, on their way to accumulating 45 points.

Danny Cowley will have to improve on that. 45 points would have been enough to stay up in the previous two seasons. But it would have still resulted in a bottom four finish both times. That’s too close for comfort.

Lyle Taylor has come in. But his best goalscoring days look well behind him. And at 34 years of age, he is in the twilight of his career.

Big things may be expected of Danny Cowley. But another season of struggle looks on the cards at Colchester. Odds of 15/2 to go down with bet365 look about right.

Bet on Colchester to get relegated at 10/1 with Paddy Power

Bromley (8/1)

How’s your luck? Bromley win promotion to the football league for the first time in their 132-year-history, and the first thing the bookmakers do is install you as one of their favourites to go down.

A good start to the season has seen Bromley’s starting price of 9/2 drift out to 8/1. They are also now the sixth favourite to finish rock bottom at 16/1, having started the season at 8/1.

The Ravens won promotion to League Two in the most dramatic fashion. Club captain Byron Webster scored the decisive penalty in the National League playoff final shootout win over Solihull Moors.

The next priority is to remain in League Two. And with Andy Woodman in charge, Bromley has a great chance.

Woodman has been manager at Hayes Lane since March 2021. His good work hasn’t gone unnoticed and in 2022, he was the subject of an approach from Gillingham. Woodman was granted permission to speak to the Gills, but decided to remain at Bromley.

His decision to stay paid off handsomely with promotion to League Two.

Further helping the cause is Lewis Leigh. He has signed permanently after an impressive loan spell last season. He is joined by Marcus Dinanga from Gateshead.

Along with the charismatic Andy Woodman in charge, the Ravens should be safe from relegation this season.

Bet on Bromley to finish bottom two at 8/1 with bet365

Grimsby (10/1)

Grimsby Town finished in 21st position last season, just seven points above the drop zone.

The Mariners dropped out of the football league in 2021, finishing bottom of the table with just 43 points from 46 matches.

They returned to league football at the first time of asking. Since getting back into League Two, they’ve managed finishes of 11th in 2022/23, and 21st last season.

The bottom line is things look bleak at Blundell Park.

David Artell is the manager at Grimsby. He was handed the role in November 2023, after Paul Hurst was sacked the previous month.

Artell was busy in the summer, he managed to sign Jason Dadi Svanthorsson on a permanent deal. The Icelandic international is joined at the club by 26-year-old Jordan Davies, who has come in on loan from Wrexham. A lot of the rest of the signings are youngsters on loan trying to find their way in football.

Survival was only secured by three wins in their final six matches last season. The club can’t keep relying on pulling rabbits out of the hat like that.

Another season fighting for survival is on the cards.

Bet on Grimsby to get relegated at 10/1 with talkSPORT BET

Newport County (5/1)

County finished 13 points above the drop zone in 18th place last season.

They started this season as one of the favourites for the drop, mainly down to finishing the 2023/24 campaign with eight successive defeats, a run that cost Graham Coughlan his job as manager.

Into Coughlan’s place comes Nelson Jardim. The former Swansea and Birmingham assistant coach is known to co-owner Huw Jenkins from his time with the Swans when he assisted Paulo Sousa when Jenkins was chairman.

Hiring Nelson Jardim to be the head coach of a team that finished last season in such a disappointing fashion sounds like a risk.

Jardim has had to move from his native Portugal to take the job, and although his arrival was greeted with enthusiasm and was well received, it remains to be seen how it plays out in the long run.

Under Huw Jenkins, Swansea picked managers to play a style of football that was pleasing on the eye.

If the plan is to play their way out of League Two in a similar style, they may well find themselves leaving the division via the wrong exit door.

The appointment looks doomed to failure.

Bet on Newport County to get relegated at 5/1 with Betfair

Cheltenham (6/1)

Cheltenham Town were relegated from League One on the final day of the 2023/24 season.

Their 2-1 defeat to Stevenage brought a sad end to their three-year stay in the third tier of English football.

Relegation also was the trigger point for Darrell Clarke to quit his role as manager to become the new head coach at Barnsley.

Clarke was on record stating the club needed to show more ambition. And when he left the role, he did with his reputation in tack.

Maybe Clarke feels there is worse still to come at Whaddon Road.

Into Clarke’s shoes steps Michael Flynn.

Flynn didn’t enjoy the greatest of spells at Swindon, where he was sacked in January following a run of 10 defeats in 15 matches. In defence of Flynn, Swindon are a bit of a mess themselves.

His immediate job was to set about replacing the 12 players who also departed at the same time as Clarke.

The experienced Gary Johnson was brought in to help Flynn start the rebuild.

But there is only so much Jonnson and Flynn can do. Cheltenham is a club that is run on a tight budget. So money is tight.

The reality is they did well to last as long as they did in League One. Especially, given the amounts of money some of the clubs in that division are currently splashing out.

A season or two of consolidation in League Two is the most likely scenario for the Robins. Unless something goes dramatically wrong, we don’t see them being in the relegation fight.

Bet on Cheltenham Town to get relegated at 6/1 with BetVictor

My League Two relegation betting tips

There are plenty of markets to bet on in League Two. At the top, you can bet on who will win the title and which teams will get promoted. While at the bottom, there are markets available on who will be relegated to the National League, and who will pick up the dreaded wooden spoon by finishing rock bottom. Below you can find our latest League Two relegation betting tips:

Morecambe to finish bottom (2/1)

This might sound harsh, but Morecambe are a more chaotic club than the rest of their relegation rivals are at this moment.

There was zero club infrastructure in place at the end of last season. Okay, there is a manager and a team now, but the majority of the division had a head start on new boss Derek Adams, and he has been playing catch up ever since.

The long running saga of selling the club is still not resolved, and as a result, Adams is effectively managing with one arm tied behind his back.

The immediate future looks bleak, and this is why Morecambe looks the best bet to finish rock bottom. If Morecambe continues to perform as they do, they will soon be odds-on in this market.

Bet on Morecambe to finish bottom at 2/1 with bet365

League Two table

Dropping out of the football league is costly, therefore the relegation dogfight is intense. Check out the latest League Two table to see which clubs are most in danger of the dreaded drop.

History of League Two relegation

The bottom two teams in League Two are relegated to the National League. That means the two teams that suffer the drop are no longer part of the English football league. In recent times, 51 points would have been enough to save a team from the drop. Bristol Rovers were the last team to get 50 and finish in the bottom two. That was in the 2013/14 season.

In more recent times, and more specifically, since the covid shortened season of 2019/20, 46 points would have been enough to avoid the drop. In the 2020/21 season, Southend United went down with 45 points, and that’s the highest amount since Barnet in 2017/18.

Given the quality of the teams that look set to struggle this season, we feel that hitting the 45-point mark should be more than enough. But to be ultra secure, getting over 50 points will almost definitely be enough to secure League Two football again next season.

Season23rd place (pts)24th place (pts)2023/24Sutton United (42)Forest Green Rovers (42)2022/23Hartlepool United (43)Rochdale (38)2021/22Oldham Athletic (38)Scunthorpe United (26)2020/21Southend United (45)Grimsby Town (43)2019/20Macclesfield Town (25)Stevenage (22)2018/19Notts County (41)Yeovil Town (40)2017/18Barnet (46)Chesterfield (38)2016/17Hartlepool United (46)Leyton Orient (36)2015/16Dagenham and Redbridge (34)York City (34)2014/15Cheltenham Town (41)Tranmere Rovers (39)2013/14Bristol Rovers (50)Torquay United (45)

Most relegated teams in League Two

Getting promoted from the National League to League Two isn’t easy. Since the English football league restructured ahead of the 2004/05 season, over 30 teams have been relegated, with plenty still to get back into the EFL.

Five teams who have made it back, only to be relegated again for a second time, are Barnet, Grimsby Town, Hartlepool United, Macclesfield Town, and Torquay United. They are the most relegated teams in the history of League Two.

Of those five, only Grimsby are currently in the football league. The other four are yet to return.

Grimsby Town – Relegated from League Two in the 2009/10 and 2020/21 seasons, Grimsby were playing with fire again last season.

They finished fourth from bottom on 49 points, just seven above the drop zone. They are in with a serious chance of making it a record three relegations from League Two this season.

Barnet – The Bees first suffered relegation from League Two in the 2012/13 season. After two seasons in the National League, Barnet were back in League Two for the 2015/16 season.

This time, the Bees lasted three seasons before suffering another relegation in the 2017/18 season. They finished second bottom of League Two with 46 points, unluckily going down on goal difference. The Bees remain in the National League to this day.

Hartlepool United – Hartlepool first suffered the drop from League Two in 2016/17. It took them four seasons to bounce back. And even then, the Pools needed the playoffs after only managing to finish fourth in the table in 2020/21.

Hartlepool were again relegated from League Two in the 2022/23 season. They have been in the National League since.

Torquay United – For so long a mainstay of the English football league, the Gulls last dropped out of League Two in the 2013/14 season. But their descent didn’t end there.

In the 2017/18 season they dropped down to the National League South, the sixth tier of the English football league system. The Gulls bounced back to the National League in the 2018/19 season. But they were relegated again at the end of the 2022/23 season, and are still in the sixth tier of English football

Macclesfield Town – The plight of Macclesfield is even worse. Their second and most recent relegation from League Two was in the shortened 2019/20 season. But events off the pitch took over and the club was wound up in the high court over outstanding debts.

A phoenix club emerged from the ashes known as Macclesfield FC. Having to start again from scratch, Macclesfield FC began life in the North West Counties Premier Division (the ninth tier in the English football pyramid), in August 2021. They are currently playing in the Northern Premier League (tiers seven and eight) after two successive promotions.

FAQ about the 2024/25 League Two season

Dropping out of League Two can destroy a football club, just ask Macclesfield Town fans. So with such high stakes, no one wants to slip through the exit door and out of the English football league. Below we have put together an FAQ section to cover some more aspects of the League Two relegation battle:

1. Where will the relegated League Two teams be from?

The relegated League Two teams are likely to be from the North West of the country. Morecambe and Accrington Stanley are both from that region and both are among the betting favourites to go down.

2. Who will be the top scorer in this League Two season?

The top goalscorer in this League Two season will be Billy Sharp of Doncaster Rovers. Sharp is 16/1 with the bookmakers. He is playing at one of the best teams in the division and as a result will get plenty of chances. The betting favourite with Betfred is Andy Cook of Bradford at 8/1.

3. Which teams will be promoted from League Two in 2024/25?

The teams most likely to be promoted from League Two in the 2024/25 season are Doncaster Rovers, Chesterfield, Milton Keynes Dons and Gillingham. They are the four betting favourites with bet365.

About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

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Latest League Two relegation odds 2024/25

Teams most likely to get relegated