The undoubted highlight of the Week 11 NFL coupon is Sunday’s clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs are the Super Bowl champions and unbeaten at 9-0 in their quest for a fourth championship win in six seasons, but the Bills are their closest challengers in the AFC rankings after winning eight of their first 10 games.
The teams have had some thrilling clashes in recent seasons, with the Bills winning the last three regular-season meetings while the Chiefs have taken their last three playoff contests.
The Chiefs are in the rare situation of being underdogs for this game as they head to Highmark Stadium for an eagerly anticipated showdown that could go a long way to deciding who gets a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills tips
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Mahomes relishes underdog role
The Chiefs have not been steamrolling their opponents this season but they remain an efficient winning machine who find ways to get the job done when it matters most.
Of their nine wins, just two have been wide-margin successes by 10 or more points and last week’s 16-14 success against the Broncos – when they held on by blocking a field-goal attempt at the death – was their closest squeak since a 26-25 win over the Bengals in Week 2.
The margin of victory will make no difference to the Chiefs’ handicap backers this week, though, as the men from Missouri are in the unusual position of being underdogs, so any win would see them cover, as would a one-point defeat at the current +1.5 point line.
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a phenomenal record when his side are underdogs, leading his team to victory in 11 of 14 such games and covering the spread in 12 of them, with one handicap tie.
The Bills are on a five-game winning streak but none of the teams they have beaten in that run has a winning record and they were not at their best in last week’s 30-20 win against the Colts, when quarterback Josh Allen threw two interceptions.
The Bills are 4-0 at home and should have wide receiver Amari Cooper back after a wrist injury, but tight end Dalton Kincaid could miss the game due to a knee issue.
It’s a game no NFL fan would want to miss and it could go down to the wire, so even the small handicap start for the Chiefs could prove to be crucial.
Kelce can rise to the occasion
Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce made a quiet start to the season with just eight catches for 69 yards in his first three games but he has been a key figure for his team since then, picking up the slack on offence as injuries at wide receiver have bitten hard.
Kelce has brought in an impressive 32 passes in just the last three games against the Raiders, Buccaneers and Broncos for 254 yards and two touchdowns and he should prove tough for the Bills defence to handle.
The Bills have not faced an elite tight end for a while, but they have still given up plenty of yardage to lesser players at the position, with Jonnu Smith of the Dolphins having five receptions for 46 yards two weeks ago and Seahawks duo AJ Barner and Noah Fant combining for five catches for 56 yards, while Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo was his team’s leading receiver against the Bills.
That suggests a high-volume target such as Kelce should be able to find gaps in the heart of a Bills defence which will be missing injured linebacker Matt Milano.
Kelce has averaged 86 yards and better than a touchdown per outing in seven meetings with Buffalo since 2020 and looks set for another impactful outing.
All odds correct at time of writing
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