American football is one of the most over-analysed sports in the world, with literally every play and every yard a team gains or loses counting towards some sort of statistical category. 

You may hear how a team has a number one ranked offense in the league – but that could be in terms of total yards gained throughout the season, total points scored on offense, average yards per play, average number of plays per drive, and so on.

Equally a team can be said to have the most fearsome defence, but again, that could be referring to stopping the run, or pass, giving up the fewest touchdowns or creating the most turnovers – which can also be broken down into interceptions and forced fumbles!

If you’re an avid follower of the NFL and dedicate your Sundays to watching Red Zone or live games, but haven’t placed bets on the sport before, you may not be aware that virtually any offensive, defensive or player-specific metric can be wagered on.

All of the above – i.e. specific predictions, or bets, on individual player performances or events within the game, and which aren’t related to the overall score or points spread – are known as prop bets (shortened from proposition bets).

Rushing, receiving, carries and catches

The main stats which people look to when predicting how an offensive player will perform in an upcoming game are passing yards and completed passes for quarterbacks, rushing yards and rushing attempts for running backs, and receiving yards and catches for wide receivers and tight ends. And these form the basis of many prop bets, or legs of a bet builder.

With this weekend’s Super Bowl in mind, perhaps the best case study to use here would be Saquon Barkley who is expected to play a starring role for the Philadelphia Eagles, regardless of whether they win or lose.

With a prop bet, you can back Barkley to rush for a certain number of yards, or to be given x number of carries (rushing attempts). 

Given running backs can, and will, also make a couple of catches out of the backfield during a game, you can also bet on said number of catches and/or the yards they gain from passing plays.

You can also combine rushing and passing yards in one bet. Barkley is an all-round offensive weapon who can score from any play, anywhere on the field. His first touchdown as an Eagle, back in the season opener, came from a 18-yard Jalen Hurts pass – where Barkley essentially ran the route and made the grab in the end zone like a wide receiver. 

Depending on your bookie, all these lines may simply be listed as over/under values, or you may also be able to set the benchmark yourself, with the odds adjusting accordingly.

This is great for NFL fanatics who feel that the over/under is too low (and that Barkley will easily surpass it). In such cases, you can crank the dial up a little higher and receive a larger payout should you be proven right.

The same is true if you don’t believe a player will hit the given yardage – maybe the player is still dealing with a niggling injury, or maybe their carries or targets have been split with other players in recent games. The further you move away from the bookie’s line, in either direction, the greater potential reward.

When it comes to wide receivers, while they can sometimes register a rushing attempt here and there, it is generally less common than a running back catching a pass.

The Kansas City Chiefs, however, are known for throwing in the odd trick play. In Xavier Worthy, they have the fastest-ever 40-yard dash runner – he recorded a time of 4.21 seconds during the league’s Scouting Combine last year. In his debut season, he has been given 23 carries (over one a game on average) and racked up 112 yards from them, as well as three touchdowns. He could be one to watch on Sunday night.

Alternatively, rather than aiming to reach, or stay under, a certain yardage or touch count, you can also flip things the other way and bet on the longest run or reception that a skill player might have.

This is best used on those players who are known for producing explosive plays, or those who have a knack of popping up just once or twice in a game but with a proper highlight reel play.

Firsts, lasts & anytimes

Prop bets are also a way of predicting the game to follow a certain pattern, or for players or teams to achieve certain feats, without having to give a final score or margin of victory.

If a team has a particularly strong track record of scoring on opening drives, or if they often come up clutch in the fourth quarter, this is where you can apply that knowledge.

You can bet on the outcome of the first, or any, given drive – touchdown, field goal, punt or turnover. You can also make assertions like “Kansas City to score the first touchdown” or “Travis Kelce to score the last touchdown”, for example.

Pay attention to the wording of these, and use it to your advantage. Just because you’ve said Travis Kelce will catch the last touchdown of the game, that doesn’t mean it has to be the winning touchdown, or that the Chiefs have to win.

Your bet will still be active even if the Eagles are cruising to victory and Kelce scores in “garbage time”. Some bookies may divide these markets so that you can wager on first and last touchdown scorers of the game – i.e. by either team – and also the first and last touchdown scorers for their team, so be wary of that.

If you don’t have a strong sense of whether a certain player will score first or last, you can also take the ‘anytime’ option.

Because first and last touchdowns are more specific, however, these will pay out more than simply stating that Travis Kelce (or whoever) will score at some point during the game. ‘Anytime’ is therefore better to use with a more niche player, rather than a team’s go-to superstar.

We’ve seen the likes of Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman score touchdowns in the Chiefs’ last two Super Bowl victories.

You can even take the players out of the equation altogether and simply take an over or under on the total rushing, total receiving or total passing yards in the game by one team, or both teams combined. The options here are almost endless!

Novelties and yes/no bets

You can also call events which don’t necessarily occur in every NFL game, such as defensive touchdowns, safeties, missed field goals and successful two-point conversions.

Many of these are simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ bets and you won’t be able to bet on two or more of them happening, especially safeties as they are particularly rare.
With regard to defensive scores, this could cover either a ‘pick six’ (interception returned for a touchdown) or a fumble returned for a touchdown.

If, however, you felt a team’s defence might record multiple interceptions, this is something most bookies will display odds for – or, alternatively, simply bet on the opposing quarterback to throw two or more interceptions.

Doing this removes the need for either of them to be pick sixes, mind, but if you feel confident in multiple interceptions and at least one being run back for a touchdown, you could combine the “defensive score – yes” bet with the “1.5+ interceptions” bet on a bet builder.

Final thoughts before the big game

The Chiefs and Eagles are two very evenly matched teams, as reflected in the wafer thin one-point spread most NFL bookies are providing.

Both have won 17 games this season and both have players who could tip the balance with one play here or there.

Prop bets can be a great way of adding a bit of extra fun to what should already be a thrilling game and you won’t even need to root for either side to ultimately lift the Lombardi.

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