After a somewhat farcical Monaco Grand Prix, Formula 1 returns to a track circuit and hopefully a more competitive race at this week’s Spanish Grand Prix.
Oscar Piastri arrives having seen his championship lead trimmed to three points by his McLaren team-mate Lando Norris.
The pair head the betting in Barcelona with Red Bull’s four-time world champion Max Verstappen, aiming for his fourth straight win in the race, the third favourite.
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Spanish Grand Prix betting tips
- Lando Norris to win Spanish Grand Prix @ 13/8
- Lance Stroll points finish @ 4/1
- Over 18.5 finishers @ 4/5
Take Norris to regain championship advantage
Lando Norris paid the price for some minor errors in qualifying over the last few races, but he put it all together beautifully in Monaco last week to snatch pole position from the home hero Charles Leclerc.
After a clean start it was just a matter of keeping it on the road for Norris to collect the victory, but he sent a message by setting the fastest lap of the race on the very last tour.
Norris can get down on himself at times and that results in him being a somewhat streaky driver, but he should be full of confidence after winning in the principality.
The Catalan circuit is no longer heavily used as a test venue, but it is still a track most of the drivers could negotiate in their sleep and Norris claimed the first of his eight pole positions last year at the circuit.
Norris and Piastri are level at four apiece in their personal qualifying head-to-head this season, but there is a feeling Norris is the quicker when both produce their best.
Qualifying ahead of your team-mate means a driver will generally get the preferential strategy in a race and Norris looks like value to earn a victory that would return him to the head of the standings.
Stroll has a point to prove
You wouldn’t know it from their results, but Aston Martin have made dramatic improvements over the last couple of races.
Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll both qualified in the top 10 in Emilia Romagna, but the timing of safety cars ruined their strategy and they finished out of the points.
In Monaco last time traffic and yellow flags wrecked Stroll’s qualifying session and he had no chance of a decent result after starting the race from 19th. Meanwhile, Alonso was in the running for the top six when his engine overheated due to being stuck in traffic.
They are certainly due a bit of luck and Catalunya, which favours an all-rounder of a car rather than raw power or aerodynamic excellence alone, could suit the Astons.
Stroll is capable of running Alonso close in qualifying and, at the prices, backing the Canadian to finish in the points makes more appeal than local hero Alonso making the top six.
Attrition should not be a factor
Each of the last two Spanish Grands Prix has seen all 20 starters finish the race and this year could see a similar scenario.
There is plenty of run-off at the track, so driving errors are not harshly punished and as long as they all get through the first corner without tangling, then collisions are rare.
The Barcelona circuit is not particularly harsh on machinery, either, so it would not be a surprise if there is no more than one retirement on Sunday.
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