Thursday horse racing tips: Best bets at Cheltenham Festival 2025 from Tom Lunn

Thursday racing tips

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
1.20: Jubilee Alpha 12/1 & Maughreen 13/2
2.00: Caldwell Potter 16/1
2.40: D Art D Art 12/1 & Harbour Lake (top 5 finish)
3.20: Il Est Francais 10/3
4.00: The Wallpark 7/1
4.40: Personal Ambition 22/1 & An Peann Dearg 14/1
5.20: Walking On Air 13/2
All tips can and should be backed as an each-way bet, aside from Il Est Francais who is a straight win bet.

Jubilee Alpha – 1pt & Maughreen – 1pt

Golden Ace won this race last year so this contest can throw out some great results and future stars, who could head for the Mares’ Hurdle next year or the Champion Hurdle as the mare did on Tuesday against the odds.

Willie Mullins hasn’t won this race in the last four renewals but did win the five prior.

However, his crop of mares at this age look impressive to potentially curb that trend.

I’ve been impressed by Jubilee Alpha this season who has won her last two starts improving on her listed company debut behind Listentoyourheart in November, including two reappearing rivals – Bluey and Hollygrove Cha Cha.

It’s hard not to side with Maughreen too, as the mare is very unexposed and exciting prospect that has been hinted at being a top contender for this yard.

She came back from almost a year off last time and justified odds-on favouritism and even now wears a hood to help with her inexperience.

It would be difficult not to be excited by the Walk In The Park mare from Willie Mullins’ yard.

Caldwell Potter – 1pt

This is the first running of this race as a handicap as opposed to a Graded contest (previously the Turners Novices’ Chase Grade 1), meaning the horses carry more weight dependent on their rating.

The higher the rating the more they carry to level the playing field against other horses.

And by the time you have the winner it separates the better horse even more, especially with this amount of runners.

Stage Star won this in 2023 where there were just seven runners.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has a similar outsider this time, with Caldwell Potter, owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.

This race also gives a huge chance to horses rated lower than their actual ability and I think Caldwell Potter is exactly that, a great each-way shot for a powerful yard.

Nicholls has another very consistent chaser that could be well-weighted and that is Insurrection, whose form lines are very impressive and once placed narrowly behind Springwell Bay, who now has to give him 12lb.

D Art D Art – 1pt & Harbour Lake (place) – 1pt

The Pertemps is yet another big race in which you could potentially score big with a nice price horse.

Harbour Lake is a very consistent and reliable horse over this distance, placing in the top three in each of his four 3m races.

As a win bet you may be siding against the nine-year-old who is at a career high mark, so may find it tough to keep progressing but his form suggests he’s dependable at least.

D Art D Art could be one of the six-year-olds, well-weighted and unexposed enough to spring up here with an already decent rating.

The Thomas Cooper-trained horse was upped to around 3m in his last two races showing great potential at both Navan and Carlisle.

In fact, he was only beaten by a neck last time out on soft ground and has won his sole run on firmer at Punchestown, really promising boosted by the fact jockey Tiernan Power Roche claims 5lb.

Il Est Francais

The day continues to be tough but if you get the prices right it could be a very profitable day.

Fact To File is the big favourite for Willie Mullins ridden by Mark Walsh who had been labelled a potential Gold Cup winner.

However after being placed well behind Galopin Des Champs he’s been dropped down to 2m4f again.

Il Est Francais is dangerously unexposed in Britain, very consistent and I think will thrive at Cheltenham, which is of course exactly what you want in this kind of a race.

The Wallpark

Flooring Porter is the only horse in recent years to win two Stayers’ Hurdles in a row in 2021 and 2022.

He was never favourite though, just as it turned out, the horses he was up against really appealed in the betting but the Gavin Cromwell-trained horse really rewarded those re-backing him.

Teahupoo is odds-on in almost all ante-post markets which just doesn’t appeal in a race that often sees each-way prices like 33/1, 12/1, 50/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 14/1 in just the last ten renewals alone.

Flooring Porter won when both six and seven which seems to be a theme – six winners in the last ten renewals have won when seven-years-old with two other winners even younger at six.

The Wallpark has gone close and with course form, winning ahead of Gowel Road, in October over 3m in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle.

He then went well behind Crambo in December at Ascot finishing 4th of ten and though he hasn’t won a graded race, he fits the bill well and was tipped up at 14/1 in the ante-post market and has seen strong support since.

Jagwar – 1pt & An Peann Dearg – 1pt & Personal Ambition – 1pt

There’s lots you could say about so many of these horses with chances all over the market from the 20 runners.

Last year’s winner Shakem Up’arry for owner Harry Redknapp is a big 20/1 shot but faces a tough task now 11-years-old.

But straight to the point, I really like the chances of An Peann Dearg.

The eight-year-old gelding trained by Paul Nolan has won twice in a row now, beating My Mate Mozzie by seven lengths last time at Leopardstown.

The step up in trip from his last two races won’t be an issue as he’s gone well over further before.

Thursday is for the each-way backers for sure but surely there’s some shorter prices going to win? Jagwar would be exactly that.

He’s 4/1 having taken to chasing very well, living up to the potential after he was so well regarded yet disappointing over hurdles but may be too short a price for me at his highest rating.

Personal Ambition has placed numerous times this season and went very well behind Mark Of Gold at Ascot in December.

That form has worked out very well and the horse with a Graded place might be unexposed and dangerously weighted.

Walking On Air – 1pt

This race at least in the last ten renewals has mostly seen six to nine-year-olds win, bar two winners who were ten and 12 respectively.

This year’s renewal mostly sees eight and nine-year-olds in the field though so it could be a first in a while in that regard.

Walking On Air is rated well below his top hurdle form and after he was unlucky in his last race where he seemed to just get the hang of chasing, fell at the last when joining for the lead.

He’s unexposed over this trip over fences and should be a great price to back each-way.

That form has worked out quite well as The Changing Man placed second and also placed second on Day 1 of Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima.

Tom Lunn’s Horse Racing P/L

March 2025: +33.44pts
From May ’24: +217.82pts
From July ’23: +357.29pts

All odds correct at time of writing

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