Thursday horse racing tips: Best bets at Market Rasen and Wincanton from Tom Lunn

Thursday racing tips

MARKET RASEN
1.15: Sunray Shadow 1/1 (1.5pts)
LEICESTER
1.25: Carismatic Soldier 13/8 (1.5pts)

Sunray Shadow

It’s Hard To Know won nicely on his hurdle debut last month but did benefit in the run-in for closing the gap on second placed Metkayina.

The Skeltons send out Sunray Shadow who looks more progressive given the way he won at Aintree in October.

He was pushed out and really responded in the final 100 yards or so under Harry Skelton, despite wavering and drifting.

If he can come on from that as they often do with more experience he’s likely to be the smart choice here.

It’s hard to know exactly what the pair have beaten so far and while the Owners Group horse is more unexposed, there’s got to be more from the Blue Bresil gelding to come who placed third on his hurdle debut.

Tamarind Bay gets 7lb from those winners but was well-beaten by some good prospects, The New Lion (trained by Dan Skelton), Belliano and Kayf Dancer.

However, the market will be indicative of his chances as he faces two tough rivals again.

Carismatic Soldier

Sometimes it’s not worth backing a hurdle debutant as you don’t quite know how they’re going to handle the new challenge.

But sometimes it’s worth it if there’s value which should be the case for Caristmatic Soldier, trained by Olly Murphy, who’s in great form this season and currently along with jockey Sean Bowen.

He’s given 10lb by Inside Man as he won last time out ahead of Vaguely Royal.

That was a small surprise at 6/4 as Vaguely Royal was the clear favourite at 4/6.

He has much more experience with five hurdle races to his name already including in October 2023 in the Juvenile hurdle when second to Liari.

He’s earned an achievable mark of 119 now and the Soldier Of Fortune gelding could be up for that challenge as he placed quite well in a bumper behind Ma Shantou who bolted up at Warwick a couple of weeks ago.

Lots to like about both horses and others in the field but given the yard’s form, the horse’s form and potential value it has to go to Carismatic Soldier.

Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss

November ’24: +53.23
From May ’24: +216.81pts
From July ’23: +429.37pts

All odds correct at time of writing

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