The Cheltenham Festival, a cornerstone of National Hunt racing, is not only a spectacle of equestrian excellence but also a focal point for betting enthusiasts.

Understanding historical betting trends and statistics can offer valuable insights for those looking to navigate the complexities of this prestigious event.​

1. Dominance of Favourites in Championship Races

Historically, favourites have performed notably well in Cheltenham’s top-tier races:

• Champion Hurdle: Approximately 54% of favourites have clinched victory since 2000.​
• Cheltenham Gold Cup: Favourites have secured wins in about 50% of the races over the same period.​

This trend underscores the reliability of leading contenders in major events. 

2. Average Winning Odds: A Race-Specific Perspective

The average odds of winners vary significantly across different races:​

• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle: This race has seen higher average winning odds, indicating potential for upsets.​
• Queen Mother Champion Chase: Conversely, this event typically features lower average winning odds, reflecting the success of favourites.​

Such disparities highlight the importance of tailoring betting strategies to individual races.

3. Influence of Last-Outing Performance

A horse’s performance in its race prior to Cheltenham often serves as a strong indicator:​

• Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Horses that won their last race have secured 16 out of the past 20 renewals, emphasizing the significance of recent form. ​

4. Age and Experience Factors

Age has been a determining factor in certain races:​

• Cheltenham Gold Cup: Over the past two decades, horses aged 7 or 8 have won 15 times, suggesting a prime age range for contenders. 

5. Betting Behavior Trends

Recent festivals have witnessed shifts in betting patterns:​

• Each-Way Betting: There was a 25% surge in each-way bets during the 2024 festival compared to 2023, indicating bettors’ strategies to mitigate risk.​
• Mobile Betting: Over 80% of bets were placed via mobile devices in 2024, showcasing the growing reliance on digital platforms. 

6. Non-Runner No Bet (NRNB) Popularity

The appeal of NRNB offers has risen, providing bettors with a safety net against unforeseen withdrawals:​

• Early Adoption: Bookmakers like William Hill introduced NRNB from as early as New Year’s Day for the 2024 festival, catering to cautious bettors.

7. Performance of Favorites in Handicaps

Backing favorites in handicap races at Cheltenham has historically been less profitable. For example, only 10 out of 83 handicap races from 2011 to 2018 were won by the SP favorite, a success rate of just 12%. 

8. Age Trends in Specific Races

• Certain races exhibit age-related trends. For example, 9 of the last 12 winners of the Festival Plate were aged between 7 and 10, suggesting a potential age sweet spot for this event. ​

9. Performance of Irish Trainers and Jockeys

• Irish trainers and jockeys have dominated the Cheltenham Festival in recent years. For instance, in 2021, Irish-trained horses won 23 out of 28 races, a record that highlights their dominance. 

10. Impact of Ground Conditions

• Ground conditions (going) significantly influence race outcomes. Horses with proven performance on specific ground types (e.g., soft or heavy) tend to have an advantage when similar conditions prevail during the festival. 

11. Success of Previous Cheltenham Performers

• Horses with prior Cheltenham Festival experience often perform well. Familiarity with the unique track and atmosphere can provide a competitive edge. 

Conclusion

A comprehensive understanding of these trends and statistics can significantly enhance betting strategies for the Cheltenham Festival and allow you to make full use of your Cheltenham free bets. While historical data provides valuable insights, it’s essential to consider each year’s unique context, including current horse form, trainer strategies, and prevailing track conditions. As always, bettors are advised to gamble responsibly and view these trends as tools to inform, rather than dictate, their wagering decisions.

You might also like:

• Cheltenham ante-post tips
• Cheltenham 2025 Cheat sheet
• Which Cheltenham favourites to back
• Champion Hurdle tips
• Stayer’s Hurdle tips
• Champion Chase tips
• Stayers’ Hurdle tips
• Arkle Chase tips
• Supreme Novices’ Hurdle tips
• Gold Cup tips
• Ultima Handicap tips
• Coral Cup tips
• Grand Annual Chase tips

About the author

Liam Hoofe

Liam is an experienced iGaming and sports betting journalist based in Cardiff. He has worked in the sports betting industry since 2017 and has provided content for some of the biggest casino and betting brands in the UK. He has also covered football and other sports for both regional and national newspapers. 

Find Liam on Twitter: @LiamHoofe

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